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Weekly Picks
Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
23
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
61
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
64
users have followed this narrative
New
narrative
Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
Lithium And Iodine Investments Will Unlock Future Opportunities
Key Takeaways Significant lithium and iodine investments, along with potential external financing, could strain cash flows and impact margins amid unstable commodity prices. Ongoing disputes and tax implications from mining activities may pressure net income, leading to a cautious earnings outlook.
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US$35.00
FV
2.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
7.43%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
MGM Resorts International
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
Osaka And Digital Expansion Will Face Risks Yet Find Upside
Key Takeaways Growth in digital and international segments is challenged by rising competition, regulatory risks, high capital commitments, and potential cost overruns impacting margins and returns. Shifts toward experiential leisure help diversify revenue, but environmental, operational, and consumer behavioral risks threaten profitability and future earnings growth.
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US$35.00
FV
2.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-0.76%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Tenet Healthcare
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 21 Analysts
M&A Risks And Medicaid Reliance Will Sour Future Prospects
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on payer mix and patient acuity improvements may not sustain long-term revenue growth. Prioritizing share buybacks could indicate focus on short-term gains over organic growth, risking long-term earnings stability.
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US$137.00
FV
15.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.86%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Builders FirstSource
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
Housing Contraction And Margin Squeeze Will Deliver A Slight Rebound
Key Takeaways Operational efficiency and digital investments may boost margins, but affordability issues and market trends could restrict revenue and profit growth. Share gains from M&A and innovation face challenges from labor shortages, regulation, slower demand drivers, and potentially less lucrative acquisitions.
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US$118.00
FV
10.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
1.62%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
News
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
Digital Disruption And Regulatory Risks Will Erode Valuation
Key Takeaways Free digital content, social media, and AI-driven news feeds are reducing subscription appeal, fragmenting audiences, and undermining prospects for revenue and subscription growth. Heightened regulatory, compliance, and competition pressures are squeezing margins, increasing costs, and threatening the sustainability of both earnings and advertising revenues.
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US$26.50
FV
9.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-4.40%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Humana
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 22 Analysts
Reforms And Rising Costs Will Erode Medicare Margins
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on Medicare Advantage exposes Humana to regulatory changes, political reform risks, and competitive pressures, threatening future earnings stability and growth. Rising healthcare costs, increased utilization, and tech-driven competition could compress margins and undermine long-term profitability if operational efficiencies are not achieved.
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US$224.00
FV
10.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.55%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Capital One Financial
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 21 Analysts
Tariffs And Costs Will Challenge Discover Integration Yet Open Avenues
Key Takeaways Pending tariffs and potential economic downturns may reduce consumer spending and increase credit risks, impacting revenue and provisions for credit losses. Rising marketing expenses and increased regulatory costs could pressure net margins and affect overall profitability with uncertain returns.
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US$160.40
FV
29.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
16.05%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
Heavy Infrastructure Investment Will Boost Energy Efficiency Despite Market Risks
Key Takeaways Strategic divestments and focus on core activities could improve net margins by enhancing operational efficiency and cost management. Investments in infrastructure and technology, alongside sustainability initiatives, are poised to boost revenue growth and attract socially conscious investors.
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R$11.71
FV
11.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-4.22%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
10
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
TNE
Technology One
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
Overvaluation Will Encounter Regulatory Headwinds And SaaS Resilience
Key Takeaways Over-optimism on sustained growth and margins may ignore rising competition, regulation, and technology shifts that could pressure revenue and profitability. Customer retention is vulnerable to trends in open data, government interoperability, and disruptive competitors, risking softer recurring revenue and weaker long-term margins.
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AU$36.28
FV
10.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
15.09%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
41
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
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