Electrification And Grid Modernization Will Expand Potential Amid Wildfire Exposures

Key Takeaways

• Decarbonization policies and electrification trends drive long-term grid demand, enabling revenue growth and large-scale investment opportunities for grid modernization and renewables.
  
• Regulatory advances in wildfire risk and rate recovery reduce liabilities, support stable cash flows, and enhance long-term earnings and dividend prospects.
  
• Expanding wildfire risks, regulatory uncertainty, high capital needs, and climate volatility threaten profitability, cash flow, and shareholder value despite mitigation and modernization efforts.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and distribution of electric power.

• Policy-driven increases in electrification-particularly accelerated electric vehicle adoption and grid-dependent building decarbonization-are expected to drive sustained long-term load growth within SCE's service area, supporting higher grid usage and long-term revenue expansion.
  
• Significant state and federal investment, along with policy momentum for decarbonization, will underwrite large-scale grid modernization and renewable energy integration projects, providing Edison International with stable, above-inflation capital expenditure opportunities and growing its regulated rate base, supporting earnings and rate base-driven revenue growth.
  
• Population growth and urbanization in Southern California are projected to increase demand for electricity and infrastructure upgrades, enabling recurring regulated revenue streams and underpinning multi-year EPS growth guidance.
  
• Expanded deployment of wildfire mitigation technologies and AI-driven grid reliability solutions (such as AWARE) position Edison International to lead in safety/resiliency, reducing potential future liabilities, optimizing O&M efficiency, and supporting higher net margins over time.
  
• Ongoing regulatory and legislative engagement, including an anticipated strengthening of California's wildfire cost recovery framework and finalization of favorable rate case decisions, are expected to derisk near-term and long-term earnings, supporting stable cash flows and dividend sustainability.

Edison International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Edison International's revenue will grow by 5.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 15.0% today to 12.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to remain at the same level they are now, that being $2.6 billion (with an earnings per share of $6.06). The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from 8.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Electric Utilities industry at 20.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.35% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.96%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Edison International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Ongoing and expanding wildfire liabilities present significant risks; despite mitigation efforts and partial regulatory protection, unresolved fires like Eaton and Woolsey create the possibility of large legal settlements, self-insurance drawdowns, and reliance on the wildfire fund, which could materially pressure net margins and earnings over time.
  
• Legislative and regulatory uncertainty, especially around the future of AB 1054, shared risk models, and potential requirements for upfront shareholder or equity contributions to wildfire funds, could increase the company's cost of capital, reduce allowed returns, or dilute shareholder value, negatively impacting future earnings and potential dividend growth.
  
• Affordability pressures and proposed rate reforms (e.g., securitization) could lower allowable returns or jeopardize future cost recovery, as policymakers attempt to balance customer bills-potentially eroding revenue growth and compressing long-term profitability if regulatory support weakens.
  
• Persistent high capital expenditures needed for grid modernization, wildfire mitigation, and infrastructure replacement may outpace authorized rate increases and cost recovery, leading to prolonged periods of negative free cash flow or lower returns on invested capital.
  
• Increasing climate change severity and greater frequency of extreme weather elevate both operational risk/costs and the threat of stricter regulations, potentially outstripping current mitigation strategies and further pressuring net income through additional compliance, insurance, or capex burdens.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $66.614 for Edison International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $86.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $50.5.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $20.6 billion, earnings will come to $2.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
  
• Given the current share price of $55.28, the analyst price target of $66.61 is 17.0% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.