Grid Resilience Program Investment Will Improve Operational Efficiency And Reduce Energy Costs

Key Takeaways

• Strategic focus on infrastructure improvements and PFAS treatment may bolster efficiencies and future earnings through better regulatory compliance.
  
• Approved revenue increases and investments in utility infrastructure position SJW Group for potential revenue growth and enhanced operational capabilities.
  
• Increasing operational costs, regulatory challenges, high borrowing rates, and environmental conditions could pressure SJW Group's margins and limit earnings growth.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, provides water utility and other related services in the United States.

• SJW Group has a robust capital expenditure plan of $332 million for 2024, with ongoing investments in water and wastewater utility infrastructure across four states expected to enhance operational capabilities and drive future revenue growth.
  
• The company anticipates a $16 million investment, with $8 million from grants through the Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships program, focused on increasing operational resilience and reducing energy costs, potentially improving net margins.
  
• The settlement agreement with the California Public Utilities Commission, if approved, is expected to authorize a $450 million capital expenditure budget, covering key infrastructure needs including PFAS treatment and solar generation, and could allow for increased revenue recovery.
  
• SJW Group is strategically focusing on PFAS and emerging contaminant treatment, research, and infrastructure improvements, which may lead to enhanced efficiencies and future earnings performance through improved regulatory compliance.
  
• The company benefits from approved revenue increases driven by rate cases and infrastructure recovery mechanisms across its operating states, positioning for continuous revenue upticks and EPS growth in the upcoming years.
  

SJW Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming SJW Group's revenue will grow by 2.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.5% today to 14.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $112.9 million (and earnings per share of $3.24) by about December 2027, up from $90.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 23.0x on those 2027 earnings, up from 19.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Water Utilities industry at 23.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.56% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.92%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

SJW Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Increasing costs for water production and aging infrastructure may put pressure on net margins if not adequately offset by rate increases, which could affect earnings.
  
• Regulatory challenges, such as the need to meet new water quality standards and manage stakeholder expectations, could increase operational complexity and costs, impacting net income.
  
• Exposure to drought conditions in regions such as Texas may result in decreased water sales, potentially reducing revenue and affecting earnings projections.
  
• High borrowing rates for financing, as seen with the 6.53% average borrowing rate for the year, could increase interest expenses and impact net margins.
  
• Implementing major capital expenditures, like PFAS remediation and infrastructure investments, without corresponding revenue increases could strain cash flow and limit earnings growth potential.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $64.33 for SJW Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $73.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $59.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $786.3 million, earnings will come to $112.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.9%.
• Given the current share price of $53.47, the analyst's price target of $64.33 is 16.9% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.