ZTO Delivers Solid Volume Growth Amid Margin Pressures in Q1 2025

Published
27 Jan 25
Updated
27 May 25
WaneInvestmentHouse's Fair Value
US$20.00
4.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
27 May
US$19.10
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1Y
-7.2%
7D
-4.1%

Author's Valuation

US$20.0

4.5% undervalued intrinsic discount

WaneInvestmentHouse's Fair Value

Shared on27 May 25

WaneInvestmentHouse made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on27 May 25

Subject: ZTO Delivers Solid Volume Growth Amid Margin Pressures in Q1 2025 ZTO Express kicked off 2025 with a strong operational performance, highlighted by a 19.1% year-over-year surge in parcel volume to 8.5 billion —a clear reflection of robust market demand and the company's deepening competitive moat in China’s express delivery landscape. The company reiterated its full-year volume growth guidance of 20% to 24% , underscoring management's confidence in sustained momentum.

Shared on05 May 25
Fair value Decreased 9.09%

WaneInvestmentHouse has increased revenue growth from 10.7% to 19.1% and increased discount rate from 7.4% to 10.0%.

Shared on20 Mar 25
Fair value Increased 10%

WaneInvestmentHouse has increased revenue growth from 8.7% to 10.7%.

Shared on19 Mar 25
Fair value Increased 11%

WaneInvestmentHouse has increased revenue growth from 6.5% to 8.7%.