Limited Vessel Supply Will Increase Pricing Power In Marine Transportation

Key Takeaways

• Limited vessel supply and market fundamentals in marine transportation segments suggest pricing power and revenue growth potential.
  
• Strong order growth and power generation investments position Kirby for future revenue gains despite supply chain challenges.
  
• Weather disruptions and supply chain constraints could challenge revenue and margin growth in marine and distribution segments, amid inflation and labor shortages.

Catalysts

Operates domestic tank barges in the United States.

• The inland Marine Transportation segment is benefiting from limited new barge construction and solid market fundamentals, suggesting potential for improved utilization rates and increased pricing power, positively impacting revenue and margins.
  
• The coastal Marine Transportation segment is experiencing high demand and limited vessel supply, allowing for significant term contract pricing increases, which could enhance revenue and margins.
  
• The Distribution and Services segment is seeing substantial order growth and backlog in power generation due to critical industrial demand, positioning it for future revenue growth despite current supply chain issues.
  
• Kirby's investment in power generation rental business suggests potential revenue growth and margin improvement by capitalizing on increasing demand for backup power and data centers.
  
• Strong free cash flow generation allows the company to enhance shareholder value through debt reduction and share buybacks, positively impacting earnings per share.

Kirby Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Kirby's revenue will grow by 6.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.4% today to 12.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $501.9 million (and earnings per share of $9.32) by about December 2027, up from $305.7 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.9x on those 2027 earnings, down from 20.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Shipping industry at 4.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.12% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.54%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Kirby Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The impact of Hurricane Milton and other weather-related disruptions could continue to affect operations, particularly in the Marine segment, leading to potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth if such events become more frequent or severe.
  
• The reliance on high utilization rates and upward pricing in the Marine segment may face challenges from potential softening in customer demand, particularly from refineries, which might affect revenue and margins.
  
• Supply chain constraints, especially in the power generation space, and deferral of maintenance by customers could hinder growth in the Distribution and Services segment, impacting revenue and operating margins.
  
• Inflationary pressures and shortages of skilled maritime labor are rising, leading to increased operational costs and potentially impacting the company's ability to maintain or improve profit margins.
  
• The significant capital expenditure plan, driven by maintenance needs, might pressure cash flow and reduce flexibility for growth investments if the expected market conditions do not materialize, affecting long-term earnings potential.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $139.83 for Kirby based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $3.9 billion, earnings will come to $501.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.5%.
• Given the current share price of $110.78, the analyst's price target of $139.83 is 20.8% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.