Last Update 07 Mar 26

TTMI: Radar And Data Center Demand Will Support Future Margins

Analysts have increased their blended 12 month price target on TTM Technologies by $36 to $118.50, citing updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Street research around TTM Technologies has centered on how updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue trajectory, profit margins, and future P/E multiples flow through to valuation. Several firms have adjusted their 12 month targets, which gives you a sense of where analysts see execution risk and potential upside.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to updated revenue assumptions as a key driver behind higher targets, suggesting confidence that the company can support a higher earnings base to justify the blended US$118.50 target.
Improved profit margin assumptions feature prominently in the research, with analysts arguing that even modest efficiency gains or mix shifts could support a higher sustainable earnings level and, in turn, valuation.
Some target increases are tied to revised P/E assumptions, with bullish analysts indicating a willingness to pay a higher multiple if the company continues to execute against its operating plan.
Adjustments to discount rates in several models work in TTM Technologies' favor, as bullish analysts see the risk profile as acceptable for the potential earnings stream being modeled.

Bearish Takeaways

Even with higher targets, cautious analysts still anchor their work on discount rates that reflect execution and macro risk, which can cap how far valuation multiples are pushed.
While revenue expectations have been revised, some research highlights that these projections need consistent delivery, and any shortfall could pressure both earnings and the implied P/E.
Profit margin assumptions in the models leave limited room for error, so bearish analysts flag potential cost pressures or mix changes as risks to the current valuation framework.
Several reports remind investors that a higher 12 month target does not remove the possibility of share price volatility, especially if the company underperforms the earnings and cash flow paths embedded in these updated models.

What's in the News

TTM Technologies issued guidance for the first quarter of 2026, estimating net sales in a range of US$770 million to US$810 million. (Corporate guidance)
For full year 2026, the company issued net sales guidance indicating expected growth in a range of 15% to 20%. (Corporate guidance)
TTM Technologies was dropped from the S&P 600 index and the S&P 600 Information Technology sector. (Index changes)
The company was added to the S&P 400 index and the S&P 400 Information Technology sector. (Index changes)
TTM Technologies and Raytheon entered into a multi year agreement with potential value of US$200 million over three years for radio frequency assemblies, electronic hardware, printed circuit boards, and related work supporting Raytheon's Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor and GhostEye radars. (Client announcement)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The $118.50 fair value estimate is unchanged, indicating no shift in the overall price target level.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has fallen slightly from 8.64% to 8.56%, reflecting a small adjustment to the risk assumptions used in the models.
Revenue Growth: The revenue growth assumption is effectively unchanged at about 16.70%, with only a minimal numerical refinement.
Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin assumption remains effectively steady at about 13.01%, with only a minor calculation update.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has edged down slightly from 27.31x to 27.25x, pointing to a small reset in how much investors are assumed to pay for earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Demand for advanced PCBs from AI, cloud, and defense markets, plus domestic sourcing trends, strengthens TTM's growth, customer ties, and revenue stability.
Expansion into engineered solutions, automation, and disciplined operations enhances pricing power, margins, and cash flow resilience.
High operating costs, persistent customer concentration, geopolitical exposure, and capital-intensive expansions create significant margin, revenue, and execution risks for future profitability.

Catalysts

About TTM Technologies

Manufactures and sells mission systems, radio frequency (RF) components and RF microwave/microelectronic assemblies, and printed circuit boards (PCB) in the United States, Taiwan, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Large-scale data center buildouts announced by tech giants (e.g., Google, CoreWeave, Meta) and TTM's new Wisconsin facility position the company to capture outsized demand for advanced PCBs and interconnects required for AI and cloud infrastructure, directly supporting revenue growth and long-term customer relationships.
Sustained increases in U.S. and NATO defense spending plans, alongside TTM's deep strategic alignment and $1.46 billion A&D backlog, provide long-term visibility and stability for high-margin revenue streams, improving predictability of forward earnings and supporting ongoing margin expansion.
Ongoing expansion into higher-value engineered solutions and advanced manufacturing capabilities-particularly through new capacity in Penang, Syracuse, and product mix shifts-increases pricing power and drives gross margin improvements over time, enhancing net margin profile.
Growing industry-wide emphasis on supply chain resiliency and secure domestic sourcing is likely to shift PCB market share toward North American providers like TTM, potentially leading to persistent outperformance in revenue and free cash flow as customers prioritize domestic production.
TTM's operational footprint rationalization, including automation in new U.S. and Malaysian locations, and disciplined strategic focus, positions the company to both manage costs efficiently and respond rapidly to demand surges, underpinning robust future earnings and cash flow generation.

TTM Technologies Earnings and Revenue Growth

TTM Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming TTM Technologies's revenue will grow by 6.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.5% today to 7.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $251.1 million (and earnings per share of $1.84) by about September 2028, up from $93.2 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 31.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 52.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electronic industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.32% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.73%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

TTM Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's Penang facility in Malaysia is experiencing slower-than-expected revenue ramp-up due to operational "growing pains" and longer customer qualification cycles, resulting in ongoing margin drag (210 basis points on operating margin), which could negatively impact both near-term and long-term net margins and earnings if not resolved promptly.
New domestic U.S. manufacturing initiatives (such as the Wisconsin facility) carry significantly higher operating costs (estimated at least 50% above China), and require explicit long-term customer commitments at substantially higher pricing; any lack of such demand could leave TTM with underutilized, costly assets, leading to pressure on gross margin and lower free cash flow.
The company maintains notable customer concentration, with the top 5 customers forming 41% of total sales and one customer exceeding 10%; any loss or reduction of business from these key clients would expose TTM to meaningful revenue volatility and potential earnings downside.
Although TTM has diversified its global manufacturing presence, it retains significant capacity and expansion in China (Dongguan and Guangzhou), which leaves the company exposed to ongoing and potentially escalating U.S.–China geopolitical tensions, risking supply chain disruption and increased input costs that could depress future profitability.
The ongoing requirement for high capital expenditures (for facility buildouts and capacity expansions in Malaysia, New York, and Wisconsin) amid a changing product mix, coupled with the potential for inertia or missteps in moving up the advanced technology PCB value chain, could constrain margin expansion and result in lower return on invested capital if execution lags or new markets fail to scale as anticipated.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $56.75 for TTM Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.2 billion, earnings will come to $251.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 31.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.7%.
Given the current share price of $47.6, the analyst price target of $56.75 is 16.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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