Investments In AI/ML And Partnerships Will Increase Market Opportunities

Key Takeaways

• Strategic investments in AI/ML and infrastructure aim to drive revenue growth and improve margins through expanded product offerings and scalability benefits.
  
• Transition to committed contracts and strategic partnerships enhance revenue predictability and market reach, boosting future cash flow and earnings visibility.
  
• Reliance on product innovation and AI/ML growth entails execution risk and cost pressure, potentially impacting revenue growth and net margins.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, operates a cloud computing platform in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally.

• DigitalOcean is focusing on increased product innovation and go-to-market investments for Builders and Scalers, resulting in higher revenue growth rates for these customer segments compared to the overall rate. This should positively impact revenue growth.
  
• The continued momentum and rapid growth of the AI/ML platform, with ARR growing close to 200% year-over-year, could add significant future revenue streams as adoption of AI technologies expands, positively impacting overall revenue.
  
• The shift from usage-based to committed contracts for larger enterprise customers is expected to stabilize and potentially increase future cash flows, enhancing earnings visibility and revenue predictability.
  
• DigitalOcean is investing in enhancing its infrastructure with offerings like GPU Droplets and Kubernetes platforms, which are expected to drive demand from AI-intensive customers, ultimately contributing to higher revenue and improved net margins due to the scalability benefits of these offerings.
  
• Strategic partnerships with firms like Hugging Face and Netlify are expected to create new channels and opportunities for platform usage, potentially increasing market reach and revenue growth, as well as improving net margins due to the collaborative nature of these partnerships.

DigitalOcean Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming DigitalOcean Holdings's revenue will grow by 15.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.9% today to 11.6% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $134.5 million (and earnings per share of $1.3) by about December 2027, up from $82.2 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $81.3 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 40.0x on those 2027 earnings, down from 42.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US IT industry at 43.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.83% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.6%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

DigitalOcean Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company's reliance on expanding product innovation and its attempts to shift larger workloads from other clouds to the DigitalOcean platform carries execution risk. If not successful, this could impact the expected revenue growth from these initiatives.
  
• While DigitalOcean is experiencing growth in AI/ML products, there is a risk of slower adoption of these new AI/ML offerings impacting the revenue from this sector, especially if customers prefer competing technologies.
  
• Net dollar retention at 97% is below the desirable level of above 100%, indicating potential challenges in growing revenue from existing customers due to churn or inability to upsell.
  
• The managed hosting business is seeing below-the-historical net expansion rates, possibly due to lapping price increases. This could represent a risk to both net margins and overall revenue growth if not effectively managed.
  
• The company's commitment to increasing operating expenses, notably in R&D for AI capabilities, might lead to compressed net margins if the anticipated growth in revenue from these investments does not materialize as expected.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $40.73 for DigitalOcean Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $48.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $28.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $1.2 billion, earnings will come to $134.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 40.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
• Given the current share price of $37.76, the analyst's price target of $40.73 is 7.3% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.