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NVIDIA's Rapid Rise Will Fade Amidst Slowing Revenue Growth and Weakening Profit Margins

Published
19 Dec 25
Views
2
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Alphabet's Fair Value
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1Y
34.1%
7D
0.5%

Author's Valuation

US$114.0364.8% overvalued intrinsic discount

Alphabet's Fair Value

Alphabet's (GOOG) Ironwood TPUs will weaken Nvidia's (NVDA) moat as a strong competitor, they will take lots of potential revenue and their profit margins will shrink. I expect them to have strong short term performance although from a long term perspective I am bearish on this stock. It has an extremely high P/E ratio of around 42. Even though this might seem like a good investment with extraordinary growth it is an extremely hot stock which is being followed by many analysts making it difficult to get a leg up.

The company uses circular financing which is a type of accounting fraud in this case since it makes the company's sales and earnings growth look bloated. This is a very similar case to Enron in 2001 when it went through bankruptcy shortly thereafter; I'm not saying that it will go bankrupt but I am saying that it may have legal troubles and a slow on revenue growth since this is extremely unsustainable.

The chances of an AI bubble right now might be unrealistic right now although it is extremely likely in the next 2-3 years. This will impact the AI industry as a huge macroeconomic issue which will decrease the demand for the company. If this does happen the value of Nvidia may halve and keep on going down from there.

So my conclusion is that this is an extremely hot stock which many buy because of FOMO. It won't keep growing its revenues and earnings at this pace. It's circular financing deals is accounting fraud which makes the company look more attractive and fakes high revenue growth.

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Disclaimer

The user Alphabet has a position in NasdaqGS:NVDA. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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