A tech powerhouse quietly powering the world’s AI infrastructure.

CO
codepoet
codepoet
Invested
Community Contributor
Published
22 Jul 25
Updated
02 Aug 25
codepoet's Fair Value
US$225.00
28.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
02 Aug
US$288.64
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1Y
100.7%
7D
-0.5%

Author's Valuation

US$225.0

28.3% overvalued intrinsic discount

codepoet's Fair Value

1. Dual-Engine Growth: AI Semiconductors + Software

Broadcom is no longer just a chipmaker; it’s a full-stack AI and infrastructure provider, blending hardware and software seamlessly. Its ambition? To dominate AI-specific custom silicon and enterprise-grade cloud software.

On the hardware side, AI ASICs (XPUs) are flying off hyperscaler shelves—Broadcom is now serving seven hyperscale customers, up from just three last year. AI revenue hit $4.4B in Q1 FY2025, a stunning 77% year-over-year surge. Software-wise, the $69B VMware acquisition has morphed into a high-margin SaaS cash engine via VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) and AI‑enabled virtualization tools like Tanzu CloudHealth. 

2. Financial Powerhouse

Broadcom just smashed its Q2 FY2025 results:

  • Revenue: ~$15.0B (+20% YoY
  • Gross Margin: ~68%
  • Operating Margin: ~39%
  • Adjusted EBITDA: ~$10 B (67% margin)
  • Free Cash Flow: ~$19–20 B/year 
  • Shareholder returns: ~$7 B returned in cash and buybacks in Q2 alone 

Impressive scale, excellent operating efficiency, and a fortress-level cash position.

3. Differentiated Tech & Moat

  • Tomahawk 6 Ethernet chip launched mid‑2025 delivers industry‑leading 102.4 Tbps switching capacity—double anything else in the market.
  • Broadcom’s chip design spans networking, storage, RF, and wireless, while many hyperscalers build in-house solutions. Sticky, mission-critical tech = high switching costs  .
  • VMware integration further entrenches Broadcom in enterprise IT stacks, offering scalable hybrid‑cloud and Private AI virtualization platforms.

4. Market Momentum & Institutional Credibility

  • In 2025, Broadcom stock pulled in $24.5 B from top mutual fund inflows—eclipsing Meta ($7.1 B) and Nvidia ($5.3 B) .
  • Analysts raised price targets: e.g., Mizuho bumped PT to $329 (from $315), while positioning shares among the most widely owned by hedge funds.
  • Technical indicators show rising strength: 21‑day above 50‑day moving average, nearing 52‑week highs, Composite Rating of 98 (vs Nvidia’s 97). 

5. Key Risks to Watch

  • Valuation stretch: Trading around 45x forward P/E and ~32x free cash flow, elevated even for top-tier AI names.
  • Customer concentration: Top 5 customers make up ~40% of revenue—makes results predictable but fragile .
  • Supply chain & geopolitics: Heavy reliance on TSMC, U.S.–China trade frictions could hit deliveries or revenue from global hyperscalers  

Investment Thesis Summary

Broadcom is a pick‑and‑shovel AI infrastructure giant disguised as a chip roll-up plus VMware boo. With dual engines—custom ASICs for hyperscale customers and high-margin software from VMware—it offers exposure to the AI boom with operational discipline and deep enterprise penetration.

If you want exposure to long‑term AI infrastructure (not just flashy GPUs) with strong cash flow and shareholder returns, Broadcom is one of the rare plays offering both scale and diversity.

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Disclaimer

The user codepoet has a position in NasdaqGS:AVGO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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