Last Update 13 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.018%

DKS: Future Returns Will Depend On Foot Locker Integration Amid Balanced Outlook

Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on DICK'S Sporting Goods to the mid $240s per share, reflecting slightly slower near term margin expectations and integration complexity around the Foot Locker acquisition. At the same time, they highlight the retailer's strengthened structural position, conservative but potentially beatable guidance, and growing confidence that the combined business can sustain robust revenue growth and command a higher future P/E multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Street research reflects a generally constructive stance on DICK'S Sporting Goods despite modestly lower price targets, with most firms emphasizing the durability of the core business and the long term opportunity from the Foot Locker acquisition.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts argue that DICK'S is uniquely positioned within the sporting goods category, with scale and vendor relationships that support sustained share gains and a premium valuation multiple over time.
Several models incorporate the Foot Locker acquisition as a net positive, with expectations that the combined entity can drive better flow through on revenue, improved gross margin mix, and higher long term earnings power.
Updated price targets, even where trimmed, still sit well above current trading levels, reflecting confidence that conservative guidance can be beaten and that earnings revisions can trend higher as integration progresses.
Some bullish analysts highlight that the company is already the largest global sporting goods retailer, which they see as a structural advantage for vendor terms, exclusive product access, and long term growth visibility.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on integration risks tied to Foot Locker, noting the complexity of inventory clean up, sizable charges, and store closures, which could pressure near term profitability and make modeling more uncertain.
There is concern that slower embedded same store sales assumptions and margin headwinds could limit upside to current valuation in the next couple of quarters, even if the long term story remains intact.
Some cautious views center on execution risk around aggressively clearing underperforming inventory, which may weigh on gross margins and cloud visibility into the true earnings run rate until at least 2026.
While the core business is viewed favorably, bearish analysts see the elevated expectations baked into higher targets as vulnerable if integration milestones slip or if consumer demand softens from current levels.

What's in the News

DICK'S Sporting Goods raised its full year 2025 earnings guidance, now expecting diluted EPS of $14.25 to $14.55, net sales of $13.95 billion to $14.0 billion, and higher comparable sales growth of 3.5% to 4.0% for the DICK'S business, up from 2.0% to 3.5% previously (Company guidance filing).
The company reported significant progress on its December 2021 share repurchase program, buying back 1.4 million shares for $298.7 million between August 3 and November 1, 2025, and completing 15.7 million shares repurchased in total for about $2.09 billion (Company buyback update).
Cookie Jar & A Dream Studios, DICK'S in house content and production arm, announced "Play It Forward, Game On," a six episode unscripted TV series premiering on Nickelodeon that provides surprise makeovers and equipment upgrades for under resourced youth sports teams (Company product announcement).
DICK'S launched a holiday content campaign titled "Greatest Wrapper in the Game" featuring college basketball star and rapper Flau'jae Johnson, promoting limited edition custom wrapping paper and in store giveaways tied to holiday shopping and basketball season (Company product announcement).
DICK'S Sporting Goods was named as a defendant in consolidated federal antitrust class actions alleging long running price fixing of archery products, after the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation centralized nearly 20 related lawsuits in Colorado (Court filings / MDL order).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Essentially unchanged, ticking up slightly from about $236.43 to $236.48 per share.
Discount Rate: Risen modestly from approximately 9.45% to 9.52%, implying a slightly higher required return on equity.
Revenue Growth: Increased slightly from about 16.0% to 16.4%, reflecting a marginally more optimistic top line outlook.
Net Profit Margin: Fallen modestly from roughly 6.48% to 6.20%, indicating a slightly more conservative view on long term profitability.
Future P/E: Risen meaningfully from about 19.8x to 23.5x, suggesting a higher assumed valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Growth is fueled by consumer health trends, strong brand offerings, omnichannel investments, and innovative in-store experiences that deepen customer engagement and loyalty.
Technology, data analytics, and strategic acquisitions are increasing operational efficiency, market reach, and profitability while positioning the company for sustained long-term expansion.
Execution risks from the Foot Locker acquisition, increased footwear exposure, and rising costs could pressure margins and earnings if consumer trends or store traffic decline.

Catalysts

About DICK'S Sporting Goods

Operates as an omni-channel sporting goods retailer primarily in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

DICK'S is capitalizing on increased consumer focus on healthy, active lifestyles and rising youth sports participation, evidenced by strong comp growth, broad-based demand across key categories (apparel, footwear, team sports, golf), and the rapid growth of GameChanger, all likely to drive ongoing revenue expansion and market share gains.
Strategic investments in omnichannel capabilities-including House of Sport and Field House experiential stores, a robust e-commerce/app platform, and advanced athlete data-are boosting both online and in-store engagement, positioning DICK'S to increase revenue per customer and support higher average transaction values over the long term.
Expansion of high-margin vertical/private label brands (DSG, CALIA, VRST) and greater proprietary assortment are driving margin expansion and brand loyalty, serving as a significant lever for future improvement in net margins and overall profitability.
The acquisition of Foot Locker is set to expand DICK'S total addressable market, broaden its consumer base, strengthen vendor relationships, and offer synergies (targeting $100–125M), all of which are likely to accelerate top-line growth and operating earnings post-integration.
Investment in technology and data analytics-including the DICK'S Media Network and integration of AI/RFID across digital and store operations-will enhance personalization, inventory efficiency, and operational productivity, expected to deliver operating leverage and long-term earnings growth.

DICK'S Sporting Goods Earnings and Revenue Growth

DICK'S Sporting Goods Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming DICK'S Sporting Goods's revenue will grow by 2.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.5% today to 8.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.3 billion (and earnings per share of $17.02) by about September 2028, up from $1.2 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 15.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 18.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.62% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.81%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

DICK'S Sporting Goods Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The pending acquisition of Foot Locker introduces significant execution risk, as Foot Locker's recent weaker performance may require substantial investment and turnaround efforts; failure to realize anticipated synergies or revitalize Foot Locker could strain consolidated revenues and earnings for DICK'S Sporting Goods.
There is growing exposure to the footwear category post-acquisition, which inherently increases business risk if consumer trends shift away from footwear or if brands like Nike accelerate their direct-to-consumer strategies, potentially impacting revenue diversification and long-term sales stability.
DICK'S continues to make heavy investments in real estate-including the rapid expansion of House of Sport and Field House locations-leading to higher fixed costs; should in-store traffic decline due to secular shifts toward e-commerce, these investments may result in margin compression, asset write-downs, or store closures, negatively affecting net margins and operating income.
Strategic investments in technology, marketing, and digital capabilities are driving operating expense growth and SG&A deleverage; if top-line momentum moderates or if digital competition from Amazon, Walmart, and DTC brands intensifies, this could lead to ongoing margin pressure and reduced profitability.
Persistent challenges related to tariffs, shifting promotional environments, potential labor cost inflation, and a dynamic macroeconomic backdrop (including possible consumer demand slowdown or inventory mismanagement) may create volatility in gross margins and dampen earnings growth over the long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $237.2 for DICK'S Sporting Goods based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $280.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $165.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $15.0 billion, earnings will come to $1.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
Given the current share price of $220.27, the analyst price target of $237.2 is 7.1% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on DICK'S Sporting Goods?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

GameChanger And Omnichannel Investments Will Unlock Future Potential