Last Update 13 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 0.073%

BOOT: Future Performance Expected To Reflect Strong Comps And Elevated Execution Risks

Narrative Update on Analyst Price Target

The analyst price target for Boot Barn Holdings has been lifted modestly to approximately $227 per share from about $227 previously, as analysts factor in stronger near term revenue growth supported by robust recent same store sales and upside to quarterly results, even as they make a slight upward adjustment to the discount rate and expect only marginally lower profit margins.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the latest quarterly performance and early third quarter trends support a higher valuation framework for Boot Barn, with upward revisions to price targets reflecting greater confidence in the durability of same store sales growth and earnings power.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to an impressive second quarter that exceeded both Street expectations and buy side thresholds. This reinforces confidence in management’s execution and ability to outperform guidance.
Stronger than anticipated comp growth of 8.4 percent in the second quarter, alongside a reported October month to date comp of 9.3 percent, is seen as evidence of accelerating demand and healthy underlying customer traffic.
The combination of a strong start to the third quarter and what is viewed as a conservative outlook is seen as creating a favorable risk reward setup, with potential for continued upward estimate revisions.
Incremental price target increases are being justified by a view that Boot Barn can sustain above peer revenue growth, supporting a premium multiple relative to specialty retail benchmarks.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts acknowledge the strong recent performance but question how long double digit like for like trends can be maintained, particularly as the company laps difficult comparisons.
There is caution that recent price target increases are modest relative to the share move. This suggests limited multiple expansion from here if growth normalizes.
Some investors remain concerned that a more conservative guide could reflect management’s awareness of macro uncertainty, which may constrain discretionary spending in the western and workwear categories.
Execution missteps in merchandising or inventory management are viewed as potential downside risks that could quickly pressure margins and challenge the elevated valuation.

What's in the News

Celebrated the grand opening of its 500th store, marking a major expansion milestone with recent openings across multiple states and a return to its original Huntington Beach, CA location. This underscores sustained demand for western and work wear and successful new market growth (Key Developments).
Updated third quarter fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting total sales of $688 million to $700 million, same store sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, gross margin near 38.7%, and EPS of $2.47 to $2.59. This signals confidence in near term operating performance (Key Developments).
Raised full year fiscal 2026 outlook to total sales of $2.197 billion to $2.235 billion, same store sales growth of 4.0% to 6.0%, operating margin of roughly 12.6% to 13.2%, and EPS of $6.75 to $7.15. This highlights expectations for double digit growth and healthy profitability (Key Developments).
Completed a share repurchase tranche totaling 150,753 shares, or 0.49% of shares outstanding, for $24.94 million under the buyback program announced on May 14, 2025, returning capital to shareholders alongside growth investments (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Consensus Analyst Price Target has edged down slightly, moving from approximately $227.31 to about $227.14 per share, implying a largely unchanged fair value assessment.
Discount Rate has risen modestly, increasing from roughly 8.50% to about 8.70%, reflecting a slightly higher required return in the valuation model.
Revenue Growth has ticked up slightly, from around 13.55% to approximately 13.74%, indicating a small upward revision to top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin has eased marginally, shifting from about 9.85% to roughly 9.80%, signaling a very small expected compression in profitability.
Future P/E has increased slightly, from about 29.16x to approximately 29.30x, suggesting a minor uplift in the multiple applied to forward earnings.

Aggressive expansion into new markets, omni-channel investments, and exclusive brand focus are driving revenue growth, margin improvement, and long-term profitability.
Strong cultural trends and specialty retail demand are expanding Boot Barn's customer base and supporting market share gains amid favorable industry dynamics.
Heavy dependence on aggressive store expansion and core categories makes Boot Barn vulnerable to changing consumer trends, digital competition, rising costs, and potential margin compression.

Catalysts

About Boot Barn Holdings

Operates specialty retail stores in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Robust store expansion into underpenetrated markets, particularly in population-growing regions, is driving higher-than-expected new store performance, strong customer acquisition, and increased sales productivity. This expansion provides an ongoing tailwind for revenue and positions Boot Barn to benefit from broader demographic shifts, supporting long-term top-line growth.
Cultural factors-such as the growth of rural lifestyles and the enduring popularity of country music-are expanding Boot Barn's customer base and keeping western and workwear styles relevant, fueling sustained store traffic and brand relevance. This helps drive both revenue growth and resilience in legacy and new store performance.
Continued investment in omni-channel retailing, notably the integration of e-commerce (with double-digit online sales growth) and AI-powered enhancements, extends Boot Barn's reach to a wider national audience. These efforts are likely to boost digital sales, improve customer engagement, and expand both revenue and recurring earnings streams.
Increasing penetration of higher-margin exclusive brands (now exceeding 40% of sales, with a target of 50% in coming years) is supporting merchandise margin expansion. This transition to exclusive brands-supported by targeted marketing initiatives and new sourcing strategies-positions the company for improved net margins and long-term profitability.
Favorable market dynamics, including rising consumer preference for specialty retail over traditional department stores and increased demand from construction and energy industries for durable workwear, are supporting Boot Barn's market share gains and core product demand. These trends underwrite future revenue stability and earnings strength.

Boot Barn Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

Boot Barn Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Boot Barn Holdings's revenue will grow by 12.5% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 9.8% today to 9.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $264.7 million (and earnings per share of $8.67) by about September 2028, up from $195.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 30.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from 28.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 18.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.1% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.38%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Boot Barn Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

There is significant dependence on ongoing aggressive store expansion for growth, and any overexpansion or underperformance of new stores in less proven markets could lead to cannibalization, increased occupancy costs, and lower returns on invested capital, thereby negatively impacting long-term revenue and net margins.
Continued price increases and supplier cost inflation, especially due to tariffs and mid-single-digit price hikes across third-party brands, risk consumer pushback or lower demand, which may force Boot Barn to absorb some costs and accept margin compression, particularly impacting gross profit and earnings growth in the second half of the year.
Shift in consumer shopping habits towards e-commerce and omni-channel retail, while growing, may challenge Boot Barn's store-led expansion strategy, potentially resulting in stagnant or declining store productivity and future revenue as secular trends in retail continue to favor digital-first competitors.
Heavy reliance on Western, workwear, and denim categories exposes Boot Barn to changing fashion preferences, generational shifts (e.g., less interest from urban and younger demographics), and cyclical downturns within these categories, increasing revenue and earnings volatility.
Rising competitive pressures from both large omnichannel retailers and specialist direct-to-consumer brands, combined with potential regulatory cost increases (tariffs, labor), could squeeze Boot Barn's market share and profitability, directly threatening sustained net margin and earnings expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $213.286 for Boot Barn Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $254.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $142.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.8 billion, earnings will come to $264.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 30.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $184.32, the analyst price target of $213.29 is 13.6% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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