Postal Service Lease Collaborations Will Strengthen Future Income Streams

Key Takeaways

• Collaborative lease strategies with the Postal Service and rent escalations boost revenue and net margins through predictable income streams.
  
• Strategic acquisitions and asset disposals enhance earnings growth and improve net margins by expanding and optimizing the property portfolio.
  
• Reliance on the U.S. Postal Service and acquisitions poses risks due to potential policy changes, tenant concentration, interest rates, and market volatility impacting revenue growth.

Catalysts

Postal Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: PSTL) is an internally managed real estate investment trust that owns properties primarily leased to the United States Postal Service ("USPS").

• Postal Realty Trust's programmatic approach to re-leasing and collaboration with the Postal Service enhances the timing of lease executions, resulting in same-store cash NOI growth projections of over 4% for 2023, at least 3.25% for 2024, and at least 3% in 2025, positively impacting revenue and earnings.
  
• The incorporation of 3% annual rent escalations in newly executed leases increases the percentage of leases with escalations to 21%, directly contributing to revenue growth and improved net margins through predictable income streams.
  
• Postal Realty Trust is targeting $90 million in acquisitions at a weighted average cap rate of 7.5% for 2024, which could drive future revenue and earnings growth by expanding their property portfolio.
  
• The company's focus on disposing of non-core assets at favorable cap rates and reinvesting the proceeds in higher-yielding properties is expected to enhance earnings and potentially improve net margins.
  
• Postal Realty Trust's recent amendment to its credit facility, increasing their term loan capacity and reducing exposure to floating rate debt, positions the company well to fund growth initiatives and manage interest expenses, sustaining earnings momentum.

Postal Realty Trust Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Postal Realty Trust's revenue will grow by 9.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.4% today to 3.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.11) by about December 2027, up from $1.8 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $5.6 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $2 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 181.7x on those 2027 earnings, up from 179.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Office REITs industry at 30.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.34% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.02%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Postal Realty Trust Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company faces risks associated with changes in postal service policies or political shifts, which could potentially impact lease negotiations and the terms of agreements, potentially affecting revenue growth.
  
• The ability to maintain or improve same-store cash NOI growth projections of at least 3% annual growth for 2025 may be challenging if operational efficiencies do not meet expectations, thus impacting net margins.
  
• A significant portion of their portfolio is concentrated with a single tenant, the U.S. Postal Service, which presents a risk if their leasing strategy or financial health changes, affecting the company's earnings stability.
  
• The company is experiencing reliance on acquisitions to drive growth, which could be impacted by changes in the interest rate environment affecting cap rates and overall acquisition costs, potentially impacting earnings.
  
• There is an ongoing risk in meeting acquisition targets due to market volatility and seller pricing expectations, which could affect the company's ability to achieve its revenue growth goals.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.88 for Postal Realty Trust based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $93.9 million, earnings will come to $3.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 181.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.0%.
• Given the current share price of $13.46, the analyst's price target of $15.88 is 15.2% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.