Low Supply And Value-Based Care Will Drive Senior Markets

Key Takeaways

• Favorable demographic trends and limited new supply are expected to drive strong revenue, occupancy, and net income growth for American Healthcare REIT.
  
• Portfolio optimization, value-based care, and operational initiatives enhance margins and flexibility, supporting sustained earnings and asset quality improvement.
  
• Growth is at risk due to occupancy stabilization, tougher market comparisons, healthcare consolidation, reimbursement uncertainty, and challenges in integrating newly acquired assets.

Catalysts

A Maryland corporation, is a self-managed real estate investment trust, or REIT, that acquires, owns and operates a diversified portfolio of clinical healthcare real estate properties, focusing primarily on senior housing, skilled nursing facilities, or SNFs, outpatient medical, or OM, buildings and other healthcare-related facilities.

• The combination of a rapidly growing 80+ demographic and a multi-year period of low new supply in senior housing and skilled nursing is expected to drive a persistent supply-demand imbalance, fueling both occupancy gains and rent growth across American Healthcare REIT's portfolio; this dynamic should underpin above-trend revenue and net operating income growth over the next decade.
  
• Increasing integration of value-based care models and a rising share of Medicare Advantage residents in Trilogy's portfolio-where rates are significantly higher than both Medicaid and private pay-are enhancing revenue quality and margin flow-through, positioning the company for sustained NOI margin expansion.
  
• The company's disciplined portfolio optimization-selling older, lower-quality assets and redeploying proceeds into modern, higher-acuity, and recently developed properties at below replacement cost-should improve asset quality and accelerate future AFFO and earnings growth as new assets stabilize.
  
• Scalable operating initiatives, such as advanced revenue management systems and best-in-class benchmarking across operators, are expected to further increase pricing power and operational efficiency, translating into continued net margin improvement and higher cash flows.
  
• Ongoing execution of a robust acquisition pipeline, targeting $300M+ of high-quality, primarily SHOP assets in high-growth markets, coupled with improved leverage and access to equity capital, provides the financial flexibility to drive external growth, supporting long-term NAV and EPS appreciation.

American Healthcare REIT Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming American Healthcare REIT's revenue will grow by 5.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -1.5% today to 11.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $289.1 million (and earnings per share of $3.14) by about August 2028, up from $-32.8 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 37.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -207.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Health Care REITs industry at 33.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.27%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

American Healthcare REIT Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company's strong recent growth relies heavily on ongoing high occupancy and robust rate increases in its Trilogy and SHOP segments, both of which are approaching historical average occupancy levels; as these near stabilization, the ability to sustain double-digit growth may slow due to diminishing incremental margin opportunities, potentially constraining future revenue and NOI growth.
  
• The company is cycling into tougher year-over-year occupancy and revenue comparisons in the back half of 2025 and beyond (noted as "more difficult comps"), which could result in more modest reported growth rates and lessen investor enthusiasm, ultimately pressuring earnings momentum and share price performance.
  
• There is an acknowledged headwind related to hospital systems and their outpatient medical portfolios: health systems downsizing or consolidating space has led to low or negative growth within that segment, and if such trends persist (including limited new leasing or ongoing operator cost-cutting), inpatient and outpatient real estate revenues could stagnate or even decline, negatively impacting overall portfolio margins.
  
• The firm's strategic focus on senior housing and long-term care exposes it to government reimbursement risk, particularly regarding Medicaid and Medicare Advantage; while current mix optimization is driving higher average daily rates (ADR), any future cuts or slower-than-expected rate increases in federal or state funding, or less favorable contract terms as Medicare Advantage plans get more cost-conscious, could suppress rent growth and compress net operating income margins.
  
• Although leverage has been reduced and equity issuance provided growth capital recently, the company is still acquiring non-stabilized or value-add assets, which carry interim stabilization risk; should acquisition integration be slower or revenue assumptions not materialize due to labor shortages, regulatory changes, or weaker than anticipated demand in certain submarkets, both near
• and long-term net asset value (NAV) growth and cash flow conversion may disappoint, affecting distributable earnings and dividend sustainability.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $42.455 for American Healthcare REIT based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $50.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $37.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.5 billion, earnings will come to $289.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 37.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of $40.39, the analyst price target of $42.45 is 4.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.