Cold Storage Normalization And Productivity Gains Will Drive Strong Long Term Earnings Turnaround

Catalysts

About Lineage

Lineage operates a global temperature controlled logistics and cold storage real estate network serving fresh and frozen food customers across retail and foodservice channels.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Normalization and ongoing growth in fresh and frozen food consumption, evidenced by third party data, may gradually absorb excess capacity in the U.S. cold chain and support a sustained recovery in occupancy and storage revenues, which would lift total revenue and AFFO.
• A sharp deceleration in new cold storage supply, with forecasted U.S. capacity additions dropping to low single digit growth, could restore pricing power in key markets over time and improve same warehouse NOI growth and net margins.
• The company led development pipeline of 25 ramping projects, largely supported by customer commitments and volume guarantees, could add over $160 million of incremental EBITDA at stabilization, directly affecting earnings and deleveraging.
• The rollout of LinOS, the proprietary warehouse execution and labor management platform that is already associated with double digit productivity gains, may structurally reduce per unit labor and energy costs, which would expand operating margins and free cash flow as it scales across the network.
• Expansion and performance in higher value integrated solutions, including U.S. transportation and direct to consumer services, may enhance wallet share and network stickiness, supporting revenue trends and affecting blended EBITDA margins relative to traditional warehousing.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Lineage compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bullish analysts are assuming Lineage's revenue will grow by 6.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -3.3% today to 3.8% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $247.0 million (and earnings per share of $1.15) by about December 2028, up from $-179.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $-306.3 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 74.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -47.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Industrial REITs industry at 26.6x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.39%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Persistent excess cold storage capacity in key U.S. markets, with an estimated 9.5% oversupply since 2021 and only a modest pullback in new builds, could keep physical occupancy stuck near the mid 70s rather than normalizing. This would limit pricing power and weigh on storage revenue and same warehouse NOI growth over the long term, which would constrain earnings.
• Structural volatility in global trade and tariff policy, already driving roughly 20% declines in high margin West Coast container volumes and softer import export services, may become a recurring feature for seafood and other categories. This could reduce accessorial revenue streams and pressure segment level net margins and consolidated EBITDA.
• A sustained high interest rate environment combined with $7.55 billion of net debt and forecast 2026 interest expense of $340 million to $360 million, around $80 million higher than this year, could structurally increase the company’s cost of capital. This would reduce funds available for growth investments and could pressure AFFO per share and earnings if operating performance does not accelerate.
• Heavy capital deployment into a 25 facility development pipeline and numerous ramping or recently acquired assets, many in markets facing supply and demand imbalances, may deliver below underwritten yields if demand normalizes more slowly than expected. This would limit NOI contributions from new projects and delay deleveraging, ultimately depressing long run earnings and AFFO growth.
• Reliance on ongoing productivity gains from LinOS and labor efficiency to offset inflation, in a business where labor is a $1.5 billion annual controllable cost, creates execution risk. Any slowdown in throughput improvements or rollout delays could leave Lineage exposed to structurally higher per pallet operating costs, compressing operating margins and reducing free cash flow and earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for Lineage is $60.01, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $43.28. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Lineage's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $70.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $32.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $6.5 billion, earnings will come to $247.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 74.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.4%.
  
• Given the current share price of $36.82, the analyst price target of $60.01 is 38.6% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.