Launches Of COBENFY And Milvexian Will Transform Biopharmaceutical Treatments

Key Takeaways

• Launch of innovative treatments is poised to drive future revenue by addressing large unmet needs and expanding market presence in various disorders.
  
• Strategic acquisitions and a cost savings program aim to enhance growth and net margins through innovation and operational efficiency.
  
• Legacy product losses, competitive generics, and challenging drug launches could pressure revenue and margins while relying on rebate deals for market share growth.

Catalysts

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide.

• Approval and launch of COBENFY, the first novel mechanism for schizophrenia in decades, is expected to drive future revenue growth by addressing unmet needs in a large market, with additional potential indications in Alzheimer's disease psychosis, bipolar disorder, and autism spectrum disorder contributing further.
  
• The ongoing advancement of the oncology pipeline, including the subcutaneous formulation of nivolumab and bispecific ADC and radiopharmaceutical assets, is anticipated to boost revenues and extend the portfolio's leadership into the next decade.
  
• Strategic acquisitions, such as Karuna Therapeutics, and the introduction of transformational medicines like milvexian and CD19 NEX-T cell therapy are expected to provide long-term growth opportunities and enhance margin growth by prioritizing innovative and high-reward investments.
  
• Implementation of a cost savings program targeting $1.5 billion in savings by the end of 2025 aims to improve net margins by increasing operational efficiency and reinvesting savings in high ROI opportunities.
  
• Diversification and growth in the sales mix, particularly with younger assets included in the growth portfolio like Reblozyl and Breyanzi, are intended to counterbalance legacy brand declines, thereby stabilizing earnings and laying the foundation for sustained revenue growth.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Bristol-Myers Squibb's revenue will decrease by -2.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -15.3% today to 22.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $10.1 billion (and earnings per share of $5.17) by about December 2027, up from $-7.3 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $12.9 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $5.0 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.0x on those 2027 earnings, up from -16.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Pharmaceuticals industry at 17.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.37% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.92%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The acknowledgment of legacy products like SPRYCEL and POMALYST facing losses of exclusivity (LOE) could lead to significant revenue decrease and impact overall growth.
  
• The increased sample size for the milvexian trial due to lower stroke and systemic embolism rates could imply potential challenges and uncertainties in achieving expected results, which might influence long-term earnings if outcomes do not meet expectations.
  
• Reliance on generic products, which show indications of further decline due to competitive generic entries (e.g., ABRAXANE, SPRYCEL), could diminish future revenue streams.
  
• The projected 2025 heavy reliance on gaining drug access and securing favorable rebate deals to compete and drive market share (e.g., with SOTYKTU), suggests possible pressures on future net margins.
  
• Concerns around the ability of new drug launches to achieve rapid uptake, given market competition and potential payer access issues (especially notable in mental health areas like schizophrenia), may challenge projected revenue growth rates.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $60.91 for Bristol-Myers Squibb based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $73.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $39.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $44.6 billion, earnings will come to $10.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.9%.
• Given the current share price of $57.76, the analyst's price target of $60.91 is 5.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.