Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 1.66%

REGN: Core Franchises And Pipeline Will Support Measured Upside Amid Ongoing Risks

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals fair value estimate has been nudged higher to approximately $781 per share from about $768, as analysts factor in stronger medium term revenue growth, expanding profit margins, and a durable innovation led pipeline that supports higher long term earnings power despite modestly lower future multiple assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Regeneron reflects a generally constructive stance, with most firms reiterating or initiating positive ratings while modestly recalibrating price targets around execution risks and spending needs. The spread of targets from the mid $600s to near $900 underscores differing views on how fully the current share price discounts medium term growth and pipeline optionality.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight Regeneron as a differentiated large cap biopharma platform with a durable commercial base in Eylea, Dupixent, and Libtayo. This is seen as supporting confidence that earnings can compound at an above sector pace.
Multiple positive rating initiations and target increases emphasize robust Q3 execution, with headline franchises beating expectations and reinforcing the view that near term fundamentals can sustain a premium valuation.
Several notes point to accelerating Eylea HD uptake and a rich oncology catalyst calendar into 2026 as key drivers for potential multiple expansion if data and regulatory milestones are favorable.
Commentary around balance sheet strength and proprietary technology platforms presents Regeneron as well positioned to reinvest in innovation, absorb higher expense levels, and still aim for attractive risk adjusted growth.

Bearish Takeaways

More cautious analysts anchor price targets closer to the mid $600s and argue that current levels already capture a substantial portion of the near term growth story and pipeline optimism.
Uncertainty around Eylea HD manufacturing and fill and finish issues, including regulatory scrutiny at third party facilities, is seen as a key operational risk that could weigh on uptake and near term revenue visibility.
Guidance and commentary suggesting upward pressure on 2026 operating expenses raise concerns about margin trajectory, with some fearing that heavier investment may cap earnings leverage even if top line growth remains solid.
The durability of growth beyond the medium term remains a central debate, with some bearish analysts questioning whether upcoming oncology and neurology catalysts will be sufficient to justify sustained multiple expansion from here.

What's in the News

FDA approved Eylea HD 8 mg for macular edema following retinal vein occlusion, with flexible dosing up to every 8 weeks and an option to return to monthly dosing across all approved retinal indications, reinforcing the franchise's lifecycle and dosing flexibility (FDA announcement).
FDA approved Libtayo as the first immunotherapy adjuvant treatment for adults with high risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma after surgery and radiation, based on Phase 3 C POST data showing a 68% reduction in risk of recurrence or death versus placebo (FDA, NEJM, ASCO 2025).
EMA's CHMP issued a positive opinion recommending Libtayo as an adjuvant treatment for high risk CSCC after surgery and radiation, setting up a potential near term European approval that would broaden the drug's geographic reach (EMA CHMP opinion).
Regeneron and Sanofi secured European Commission approval for Dupixent in moderate to severe chronic spontaneous urticaria for antihistamine insufficient responders, opening a large additional dermatology indication in the EU (EC approval, LIBERTY CUPID trials).
Regeneron and Tessera Therapeutics entered a global collaboration on TSRA 196, an in vivo gene writing program for alpha 1 antitrypsin deficiency, expanding Regeneron's stake in next generation genetic medicine platforms (company collaboration announcement).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately $781 per share from about $768, reflecting higher projected earnings power.
The discount rate has inched up modestly to roughly 7.09% from about 7.08%, implying a slightly higher required return on equity.
Revenue growth has increased moderately to around 7.24% from roughly 6.75%, indicating a more optimistic medium term top line outlook.
The net profit margin has improved to about 30.23% from approximately 28.98%, incorporating expectations for better operating leverage.
The future P/E has edged down to roughly 16.26x from about 16.91x, suggesting a somewhat more conservative valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Expanding pipeline, new indications, and emerging market access position the company for sustained revenue growth and increased long-term earnings.
Ongoing R&D investment and advanced manufacturing provide cost advantages and margin protection amid shifts toward breakthrough technologies and personalized medicine.
Heavy reliance on EYLEA amid intensifying competition, regulatory delays, and pricing pressures threatens revenue sustainability, while pipeline and market uncertainties cloud future growth prospects.

Catalysts

About Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers, invents, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for treating various diseases worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Regeneron's broad and advancing pipeline-including recent or upcoming pivotal data in immunology, oncology (notably Lynozyfic and odronextamab), genetic medicines, and obesity-positions the company to benefit from demographic-driven increases in demand for advanced therapies and from the rise in personalized and precision medicine, supporting future revenue growth and pipeline-driven earnings upside.
Rapid growth and expansion of Dupixent (with new indications in COPD, CSU, and bullous pemphigoid) has significantly increased the addressable patient population, but only a small fraction of eligible patients are currently being treated, leaving substantial runway for volume growth, especially as global healthcare access expands-supportive of higher long-term revenues and margins.
The successful ramp of EYLEA HD, which is gaining physician adoption due to its clinical profile and durability, along with anticipated regulatory approvals for label enhancements (pending resolution of manufacturing site issues), could help offset patent/biosimilar pressures on legacy EYLEA, supporting stabilization and potential growth in core revenue and sustaining healthy margins over the next several years.
Significant reinvestment in internal R&D, advanced manufacturing, and in-house biologics and gene therapy platforms provides Regeneron with cost advantages and rapid scalability, enhancing margin protection as the industry accelerates adoption of new biotechnologies (AI, big data, CRISPR) and as regulatory pathways become more favorable for differentiated breakthrough therapies.
Expansion into high-growth indications such as obesity and cardiometabolic diseases (via GLP-1/GIP, novel antibody combinations) and strategic development for emerging market access (benefiting from increased global healthcare spending) create new multi-billion-dollar revenue streams likely underappreciated by the market, supporting higher long-term earnings and revenue diversification.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Earnings and Revenue Growth

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Regeneron Pharmaceuticals's revenue will grow by 5.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 31.4% today to 30.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $5.0 billion (and earnings per share of $46.62) by about September 2028, up from $4.5 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $5.9 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $3.2 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.63% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

EYLEA faces ongoing branded and biosimilar competition as well as continued unit demand declines, with management explicitly cautioning that pricing, patient affordability issues, and competitive pressures are expected to negatively impact future U.S. net product sales; this poses a risk of significant revenue and earnings erosion as EYLEA represents a large portion of current revenue.
Delays in regulatory approvals for EYLEA HD enhancements-due to FDA observations at key third-party manufacturing sites (Catalent/Novo Nordisk Indiana)-create near-term uncertainty and may postpone critical product improvements and label expansions essential to offset competitive headwinds, pressuring near
to long-term revenue and margin growth.
The company is significantly increasing internal R&D and U.S. manufacturing investments (over $7 billion), but with pipeline skepticism from analysts regarding the commercial value of late-stage assets relative to high annual R&D spend, there is risk of insufficient pipeline diversification or failure to generate new blockbusters, potentially limiting future earnings growth and compressing net margins.
External policy and pricing risks such as Medicare's MFN (Most Favored Nation) pricing, increased global pressure on drug prices, and uncertainty around reimbursement-particularly for key U.S. products like EYLEA-could compress net selling prices and reduce overall revenue and margins, especially if Regeneron cannot influence pricing in OUS (outside U.S.) markets managed by partners like Bayer.
The branded anti-VEGF market is experiencing share erosion to lower-cost alternatives (e.g., Avastin) due to patient affordability and assistance funding gaps, while ongoing and heightened biosimilar competition further threaten market share for established franchises, putting long-term revenue and operating income under sustained downward pressure.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $716.873 for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $890.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $543.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $16.6 billion, earnings will come to $5.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $556.53, the analyst price target of $716.87 is 22.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Pipeline Strength And Recent Developments Will Drive Premium Potential Ahead