Dimerix Collaboration Will Open Opportunities In US And Europe

Key Takeaways

• Strategic partnerships, robust product launches, and market diversification are key drivers of expected future revenue growth for Amicus Therapeutics.
  
• Maintaining financial discipline and onshoring production will enhance profitability and supply chain resilience, boosting earnings and margins.
  
• Adjusted revenue growth guidance and high rebate rates in the U.K. may negatively impact profits and revenue targets amid geopolitical and market timing risks.

Catalysts

A biotechnology company, focuses on discovering, developing, and delivering novel medicines for rare diseases in the United States and internationally.

• The strategic collaboration with Dimerix for U.S. commercialization rights to a first-in-class compound in late Phase III development for a rare fatal kidney disease is expected to expand Amicus Therapeutics' portfolio and drive future revenue growth.
  
• The company is projected to achieve GAAP profitability in the second half of 2025, as it continues to maintain financial discipline, which will likely improve earnings.
  
• The consistent delivery of double-digit sales growth for 11 consecutive quarters in Pompe and Fabry businesses provides a strong foundation for continued revenue growth.
  
• The expansion into new markets and increased market share for products like Galafold and Pombiliti-Opfolda, especially with significant launches in countries like the U.S., Germany, and Spain, will contribute to revenue growth over the coming years.
  
• Onshoring a portion of drug product manufacturing for Pombiliti as part of a diversification strategy is expected to improve net margins by enhancing supply chain resilience and reducing potential tariff impacts.

Amicus Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Amicus Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 21.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -5.4% today to 24.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $238.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.76) by about May 2028, up from $-29.4 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $165 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 27.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -68.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 19.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.96% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.48%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Amicus Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company was forced to adjust its revenue growth guidance for Pombiliti and Opfolda from 65%-85% to 50%-65% due to unexpected factors affecting quarterly revenues, which could impact overall revenue targets for the year.
  
• High rebate rates in the U.K. (VPAG rebate) were significantly more than anticipated, potentially negatively impacting profits and revenues throughout the year.
  
• Delayed patient starts in key ex-U.S. launch markets affected initial revenue expectations, which can impact projected revenues and market penetration timelines.
  
• The strategic collaboration with Dimerix involves significant investment commitments and upfront costs, which, while promising, add financial risk if the anticipated market potential is not realized as projected.
  
• Potential geopolitical risks and tariffs, although currently mitigated, could pose future risk management challenges and cost implications, impacting net margins and operational costs.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.818 for Amicus Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $22.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $9.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $976.2 million, earnings will come to $238.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of $6.53, the analyst price target of $15.82 is 58.7% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.