Niagen IV Launch And E-commerce Growth Will Strengthen Future Prospects

Key Takeaways

• Expansion into pharmaceutical-grade Niagen and increased e-commerce performance could drive revenue growth through direct-to-consumer channels and enhanced demand.
  
• Increased R&D investments and legal settlements might strengthen the balance sheet and lead to potential high-margin pharmaceutical developments.
  
• Intense competition, regulatory challenges, and rising expenses could pressure ChromaDex's revenue and margins amidst unresolved supply chain and legal issues.

Catalysts

Operates as a bioscience company focusing on developing healthy aging products.

• Expansion into the pharmaceutical-grade Niagen ingredient market, including the launch of Niagen IV and injections at clinics, is expected to drive future revenue growth due to increasing demand and the anticipated resolution of supply chain issues.
  
• Continued e-commerce growth, supported by a significant increase in the Shopify platform's performance and a rising awareness of NAD-boosting products, suggests potential for further revenue growth and improved net margins due to the higher profitability of direct-to-consumer channels.
  
• Planned increases in R&D investments, alongside a potential investigational drug application for the use of NR in the treatment of ataxia telangiectasia, could lead to future earnings growth if successful pharmaceutical developments result in new, high-margin products.
  
• The resolution of reversals of royalty obligations and recoveries from legal settlements contribute to a stronger balance sheet, potentially allowing for reinvestment in growth initiatives and enhancing future net income stability.
  
• The planned company rebranding and name change, aligned with strategic direction, may boost investor interest and market positioning, potentially impacting future revenue by attracting new consumer awareness and business development opportunities.

ChromaDex Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming ChromaDex's revenue will grow by 18.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.6% today to 13.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $21.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.29) by about March 2028, up from $8.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $24.5 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $19.1 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 41.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 71.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Life Sciences industry at 39.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.92% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.67%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

ChromaDex Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Significant competition from companies entering the NAD booster market using practices such as patent infringement, false labeling, and poor manufacturing, which could negatively impact ChromaDex's revenue through increased market dilution.
  
• Supply chain issues, particularly with the pharmaceutical-grade Niagen and the Niagen IV injections, have caused delays and might affect revenue and operational efficiency if not fully resolved.
  
• Dependence on regulatory approvals poses a risk, as any adverse outcome in regulatory reviews or clinical trials (e.g., with the FDA) could hinder product availability and future sales, impacting earnings.
  
• Legal issues, such as the ongoing lawsuit regarding NMN regulations, could impact ChromaDex's products if regulatory outcomes do not favor the company's current strategies, potentially affecting revenue streams.
  
• Increased selling and marketing expenses anticipated in 2025 could pressure net margins if revenue growth does not meet expectations, particularly in the face of intense market competition.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $8.82 for ChromaDex based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $12.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $164.8 million, earnings will come to $21.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 41.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.7%.
• Given the current share price of $7.87, the analyst price target of $8.82 is 10.8% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.