AI Advancements And Expanding Digital Commerce Will Redefine Advertising

Key Takeaways

• AI-driven personalization and new ad formats are boosting ad performance, user engagement, and creating diversified revenue streams across Meta's platforms.
  
• Platform ecosystem advantages support durable revenue growth, competitive strength, and expanded monetization as digital commerce and advertising shift online.
  
• High spending on AI and metaverse, regulatory headwinds, and uncertain monetization create risks to margins, cash flow, and long-term revenue sustainability despite strong user engagement.

Catalysts

Engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality and mixed reality headsets, augmented reality, and wearables worldwide.

• Advances in AI-driven ad targeting and content delivery are significantly improving ad performance and personalization, with Meta reporting material increases in ad conversions (e.g., 5% more on Instagram, 3% on Facebook) and advertiser ROI, suggesting the company's ongoing investments will further boost revenue growth and operating leverage over the long term.
  
• Expansion of digital advertising budgets away from traditional media and the proliferation of digital commerce are fueling higher ad impression growth (up 11% year-over-year, especially in developing markets), positioning Meta to capture a greater share of global ad spend and increase revenues as worldwide internet connectivity rises.
  
• Monetization efforts in messaging platforms-such as incremental rollout of ads and subscriptions in WhatsApp and Messenger-are expected to open new diversified revenue streams, particularly as business messaging and click-to-message ad formats gain traction, potentially driving higher topline growth and margin expansion over time.
  
• Meta's foundational investments in AI infrastructure (e.g., multi-gigawatt compute clusters, LLM model development) are materially enhancing platform engagement and recommendation quality (e.g., global time spent on video up >20% YoY on Instagram and Facebook), supporting further increases in user engagement, which translates into greater advertising opportunities and revenue scalability.
  
• The convergence of social, commerce, and entertainment on Meta's platforms-as reflected in growth from original content creators, cross-surface recommendation models, and business messaging adoption-reinforces Meta's ecosystem advantage and competitive moat, supporting durable revenue growth and improved net margins as these secular shifts expand user engagement and monetization potential.

Meta Platforms Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Meta Platforms's revenue will grow by 15.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 40.0% today to 33.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $92.0 billion (and earnings per share of $36.09) by about August 2028, up from $71.5 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $76.8 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 27.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Interactive Media and Services industry at 16.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.7% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.07%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Meta Platforms Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Significant increases in operating expenses and capital expenditures driven by aggressive investment in AI talent and infrastructure-including multi-gigawatt compute clusters and large-scale data centers-will result in expense growth outpacing revenue growth over the next several years, putting pressure on operating and net margins as well as free cash flow.
  
• Reality Labs continues to incur substantial operating losses (e.g., $4.5 billion in Q2 alone), and despite growth in areas such as AI glasses, the monetization timeline for both metaverse and AI product initiatives remains uncertain, raising sustainability concerns for long-term net income.
  
• Management expects new EU privacy regulations (DMA, LPA feedback) and the potential for further modifications to advertising models to have a materially negative impact on European advertising revenue in the near term, with continued global regulatory scrutiny threatening long-term advertising revenue growth and business model stability.
  
• Meta is pursuing speculative, long-horizon bets in AI superintelligence and metaverse platforms that currently deliver little to no direct revenue, meaning heavy upfront spending may not yield sufficient returns for years (or at all), increasing strategic and execution risk to future earnings.
  
• While user growth and engagement remain strong today, the business is highly dependent on maintaining relevance and share against rapidly innovating competitors in AI-driven content discovery and short-form video (e.g., TikTok, YouTube Shorts); failure to sustain user engagement or defend ad pricing and market share may erode revenue and profitability in the long run.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $858.627 for Meta Platforms based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $1086.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $658.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $275.3 billion, earnings will come to $92.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.1%.
  
• Given the current share price of $771.99, the analyst price target of $858.63 is 10.1% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.