Network Upgrades And Customer Focus Will Strengthen Future Broadband Position

Key Takeaways

• Charter focuses on boosting customer satisfaction with improved service guarantees, aiming to enhance retention and sustain long-term earnings.
  
• Significant network upgrades and partnerships to enhance video offerings may lead to better market positioning and improved future earnings.
  
• Increased competition, service disruptions, and capital expenditures challenge Charter Communications' growth, while cyclicality in advertising revenue threatens future stability.

Catalysts

Operates as a broadband connectivity and cable operator company serving residential and commercial customers in the United States.

• Charter's new pricing and packaging strategy, along with a brand relaunch, aims to increase product bundling and customer familiarity, potentially boosting ARPU and reducing churn, which could positively impact future revenues.
  
• The completion of programming renewals and partnerships with streaming services under their video strategy could enhance customer retention and acquisition, offering a potential uplift in future revenue.
  
• Charter is making significant investments in network upgrades, including symmetrical multi-gig speeds, with expectations of lower capital intensity beyond 2025. This could enhance operational efficiency, leading to improved net margins.
  
• The potential moderation of competition and developed partnerships with programmers enhancing their video offerings might lead to a better market positioning, impacting both subscriber growth and future earnings positively.
  
• Charter's focus on customer service, evidenced by service guarantees and improved internal processes, is designed to propel customer satisfaction and retention, predicting a stronger customer base and long-term earnings.

Charter Communications Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Charter Communications's revenue will decrease by 0.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.5% today to 10.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $5.6 billion (and earnings per share of $43.76) by about December 2027, up from $4.7 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $4.6 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.0x on those 2027 earnings, up from 11.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Media industry at 14.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.01% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.0%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Charter Communications Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The end of the government's Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) led to higher churn and loss of Internet customers due to non-payment, impacting subscriber growth and potentially dampening revenue prospects.
  
• Charter Communications is facing increased competition in the wireline and mobile sectors, which could challenge their ability to maintain or grow market share, thereby affecting revenue growth.
  
• The hurricanes impacting southeast U.S. regions have led to service disruptions and increased capital expenditures for rebuilding, which could affect the company's financial performance and net margins.
  
• Charter's heavy investments in capital expenditures, especially focused on network evolution projects planned to be completed by 2027, could strain free cash flow and overall profitability in the short to medium term.
  
• Political revenue significantly impacted the growth rate in advertising revenue, and with a non-political year expected, this cyclicality poses a risk to future revenue stability in advertising.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $405.44 for Charter Communications based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $525.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $292.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $56.0 billion, earnings will come to $5.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.0%.
• Given the current share price of $371.03, the analyst's price target of $405.44 is 8.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.