LIN: Defensive Profile And Buybacks Will Support Shares Into 2026

Linde's analyst price target has been trimmed modestly, falling from about $505.61 to $502.88 as analysts weigh the stock's defensive growth profile, slightly lower fair value multiple assumptions, and a challenging near term macro backdrop against expectations for earnings growth acceleration in 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates present a mixed but generally constructive view on Linde, with analysts balancing its defensive growth profile against persistent macro and volume headwinds across key end markets.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight Linde as a defensive growth stock with attractive risk and reward, citing an expected acceleration in earnings growth in 2026 as a key catalyst for multiple expansion.
Upgrades to Buy, even when accompanied by modestly lower price targets, underscore confidence that current valuation (including trading at a discount to its historical average multiple) does not fully reflect the long term growth outlook.
Price target increases tied to upcoming earnings previews suggest that, despite macro noise, execution on projects and cost discipline is expected to support steady earnings delivery.
Supportive ratings and targets in the low to mid $500 range indicate that many on the Street still see upside from current levels as the cycle normalizes and volumes recover.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to a challenging macro backdrop and underperforming volumes across end markets, which could limit near term operating leverage and weigh on valuation multiples.
Incremental trims to price targets, even from generally positive research, signal concerns that prior fair value assumptions may have been too optimistic given slower demand and higher uncertainty.
The removal from a high conviction ideas list reflects a view that, while the story remains fundamentally sound, Linde may no longer offer the strongest relative upside versus other large cap industrial or specialty chemicals peers.
Neutral stances paired with only modest target reductions suggest that some investors may need clearer evidence of volume inflection or project driven growth before re rating the stock higher.

What's in the News

Linde completed a major tranche of its ongoing share repurchase program, buying back 2,094,000 shares, or 0.45% of shares outstanding, for $992.58 million in Q3 2025. This brings total repurchases under the October 23, 2023 authorization to 13,890,424 shares, or 2.93%, for $6,298.96 million (Key Developments).
The company started up a new air separation unit to supply liquid oxygen, nitrogen and argon to customers across eastern Tennessee, northern Alabama and Georgia. This expands its industrial gas footprint along the I 75 corridor and supports growth across multiple end markets (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Trimmed slightly from about $505.61 to approximately $502.88, reflecting a modest downward adjustment in intrinsic value assumptions.
Discount Rate: Eased marginally from roughly 8.04% to about 8.03%, indicating a very small reduction in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth: Raised slightly from around 5.53% to approximately 5.59%, signaling a modestly more optimistic long term growth outlook.
Net Profit Margin: Edged down from about 23.91% to roughly 23.86%, pointing to a very small expected compression in profitability.
Future P/E: Lowered modestly from roughly 30.41x to about 30.25x, suggesting a slightly more conservative multiple for Linde's forward earnings.

Expansion in clean energy, electronics, and emerging markets positions Linde for sustained growth and structurally higher margins through strategic investments and long-term contracts.
Focus on digitalization, operational efficiency, and decarbonization trends drives margin improvement, resilient cash flow, and benefits from global regulatory support.
Structural risks from weak industrial demand, oversupply pressures, and an uncertain energy transition threaten Linde's revenue growth, pricing power, and long-term profitability.

Catalysts

About Linde

Operates as an industrial gas company in the United States, China, Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Linde's project backlog has doubled over the last 4 years-anchored by long-term, fixed-fee contracts supporting U.S. clean energy and electronics infrastructure-and management expects this robust pipeline to remain at record levels, positioning the company for steady multi-year revenue and earnings growth.
Strategic investments and customer commitments in rapidly expanding growth markets such as commercial space launches, electronics, and clean hydrogen (with almost $5 billion in new clean energy contracts) provide a runway for high-margin revenue streams and new project conversion that will structurally lift blended margins and earnings.
Linde's ongoing focus on digitalization, operational optimization, and network density-including base volume growth CapEx and bolt-on M&A-should continue to drive self-help margin improvement and support strong operating cash flow and net margin expansion, even through cyclical downturns.
Structural tailwinds from the global push for decarbonization, demand for low-carbon hydrogen/ammonia, and ongoing regulatory/incentive support (e.g., enhanced tax credits like 45Q and bonus depreciation in the U.S.) are expected to accelerate both revenue and project IRRs for years as energy transition investments continue.
The increasing need for medical and specialty gases in emerging markets (notably APAC and India), coupled with an aging global population and higher healthcare standards, supports long-term, stable growth in high-value segments and underpins future recurring revenue and cash flow stability.

Linde Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Linde's revenue will grow by 5.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 20.2% today to 23.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $9.1 billion (and earnings per share of $19.93) by about September 2028, up from $6.7 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $7.6 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 31.7x on those 2028 earnings, down from 33.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Chemicals industry at 25.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.52% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.96%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Linde Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent deindustrialization and economic weakness in Europe, including potential chemical and manufacturing plant closures, present a long-term structural risk for Linde, which could lead to sustained volume declines and revenue contraction in the region and erode network density, impacting profitability.
Ongoing global economic uncertainty and weak industrial activity in key markets, especially in Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific, heighten the risk of prolonged or worsening negative base volume growth, which may suppress revenue and EPS growth if industrial recovery remains slow.
Oversupply and price pressures in certain product lines (e.g., helium in China and Asia), as well as evolving competition from regional players or new market entrants in commoditized gases, could create downward pressure on pricing and net margins, reducing overall profitability.
Despite a robust low-carbon project backlog, the energy transition in Europe and globally may progress slower than anticipated due to regulatory delays, pragmatism over targets, and long permitting/infrastructure timelines; this uncertainty about the pace of clean energy adoption could hinder long-term sales growth from new projects and impact returns on invested capital.
Large, long-term contracts-especially for on-site supply in cyclical or declining industries-can insulate near-term earnings but pose a risk of future revenue volatility and margin compression if structural demand for gases weakens in core end markets (steel, refining, chemicals), or if customers fall below minimum take-or-pay thresholds over time.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $511.0 for Linde based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $576.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $381.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $38.9 billion, earnings will come to $9.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 31.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
Given the current share price of $473.44, the analyst price target of $511.0 is 7.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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