Last Update 03 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 38%

BIOX: Next Generation Product Pipeline Will Offset Argentina Liquidity Pressures

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Bioceres Crop Solutions to around $2.25 from approximately $3.63, reflecting concerns over Argentina related liquidity pressures and portfolio recapitalization challenges, even as they continue to see long term value in the company’s next generation product pipeline.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Bioceres Crop Solutions reflects a mixed backdrop, with liquidity concerns and execution risks in Argentina offset by continued confidence in the long term earnings power of its next generation product portfolio.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the current earnings weakness as cyclical, and some expect FY25 to represent an EBITDA trough rather than a new, lower run rate.
There is sustained conviction that the next generation products embedded in Bioceres' portfolio can support renewed top line growth and margin expansion over the medium term.
Despite trimming targets, some analysts see the current valuation as discounting a severe downside case, creating potential upside if execution stabilizes and liquidity pressures ease.
Post earnings, some remain comfortable maintaining positive ratings, which signals that they see the path to portfolio monetization as intact, though delayed.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that portfolio recapitalization efforts now appear more challenging, which could constrain Bioceres' ability to fund growth and optimize its asset mix.
Argentina related liquidity volatility is seen as a structural overhang that may prolong balance sheet stress and increase the cost of capital.
The notice of default from a large stakeholder is viewed as a material risk to the company’s transformation plans, adding uncertainty to both governance and strategic flexibility.
Weaker than expected Q4 results across segments reinforce concerns about execution risk, prompting some to move to more neutral stances and forgo explicit price targets.

What's in the News

Auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP issued an unqualified opinion with substantial doubt about Bioceres Crop Solutions' ability to continue as a going concern in its 20 F filing for the year ended June 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
The company disclosed that it would be unable to file its next 20 F with the SEC by the required deadline, signaling ongoing reporting and compliance pressures (Key Developments).
Bioceres entered a strategic collaboration with the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation to jointly develop and commercialize HB4 wheat in the United States, granting CWRF exclusive sublicensable rights to the HB4 trait and positioning the partnership as a platform for climate resilient, sustainable wheat production (Key Developments).
Under the CWRF alliance, Bioceres and partners will work on new broad spectrum herbicide formulations combined with the company’s biological solutions. Bioceres will lead global regulatory approvals and stewardship for the HB4 trait under an open licensing model in U.S. wheat breeding programs (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: reduced significantly from $3.63 to $2.25 per share, implying a lower assessed upside relative to prior estimates.
Discount Rate: edged down slightly from approximately 40.5 percent to 39.6 percent, reflecting a modestly lower required return on equity risk.
Revenue Growth: increased marginally from about 8.0 percent to 8.2 percent, indicating a slightly stronger outlook for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: held essentially flat, moving from roughly 9.61 percent to 9.61 percent, suggesting limited changes to long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: compressed sharply from around 17.0x to 10.3x, signaling a meaningfully lower multiple applied to forward earnings expectations.

Transitioning to a capital-light model and strategic partnerships are expected to reduce costs and boost earnings through higher-margin royalty income and new revenue streams.
Geographic expansion and emphasis on high-margin biologicals aim to diversify revenue, improve profit margins, and stabilize earnings amidst domestic volatility.
Heavy reliance on Argentina amid economic challenges and strategic shifts risks revenue stability, margin compression, and financial flexibility for Bioceres Crop Solutions.

Catalysts

About Bioceres Crop Solutions

Provides crop productivity solutions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Bioceres Crop Solutions is transitioning to a capital-light business model by exiting breeding, seed production, and seed commercialization, partnering instead with leading seed companies. This should reduce operational costs and improve net margins by focusing on higher-margin royalty income.
Partnerships with companies like GDM in soybeans and Florimond Desprez in wheat are expected to unlock new revenue streams through trait management and commercialization opportunities, likely boosting future earnings.
Expansion into international markets, such as Brazil and the U.S., and growth in sales outside Argentina support a geographic diversification strategy. This could enhance revenue growth and stabilize earnings amid domestic market volatility.
The company is emphasizing the high-margin biologicals business and streamlining commercial operations, potentially leading to better revenue diversification and improved overall profit margins.
Focus on tighter inventory management and capital allocation is expected to enhance cash generation and improve the balance sheet, positioning Bioceres for better financial performance and more sustainable growth.

Bioceres Crop Solutions Earnings and Revenue Growth

Bioceres Crop Solutions Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Bioceres Crop Solutions's revenue will grow by 9.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.4% today to 6.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $34.0 million (and earnings per share of $0.52) by about September 2028, up from $-9.1 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -19.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Chemicals industry at 25.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.22% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 32.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bioceres Crop Solutions Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The challenging economic conditions in Argentina, Bioceres Crop Solutions' primary market, have led to a 24% decline in revenues for the quarter, which may continue to affect earnings if these conditions persist.
The decision to exit breeding, seed production, and commercialization in favor of partnerships could lead to loss of control over timing and market dynamics, potentially impacting future revenue streams.
Increasing competition and saturated supply markets have put price pressure on agricultural inputs, which could continue to compress net margins if not mitigated through strategic shifts.
The company's current inventory levels and leverage ratio are already high, and any continued underperformance could strain cash flow and financial flexibility, impacting the net margin.
The reliance on Argentina for a significant portion of revenue, coupled with market contractions in the region, increases risk to overall earnings and heightens the impact of local economic volatility on the company's financials.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $6.833 for Bioceres Crop Solutions based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $8.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $6.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $500.3 million, earnings will come to $34.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 32.3%.
Given the current share price of $2.82, the analyst price target of $6.83 is 58.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

BIOX: Recovery From Argentina Volatility Will Drive Future Upside Potential