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Winning RFPs And Medicaid Adjustments Will Secure Future Healthcare Success

Published
08 Aug 24
Updated
21 Sep 25
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$202.43
4.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
21 Sep
US$194.25
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1Y
-41.4%
7D
2.6%

Author's Valuation

US$202.434.0% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on21 Sep 25
Fair value Increased 2.90%

Despite increased implementation and margin risks tied to stricter CMS Star ratings, sector cost trends, and uncertain legislative impacts, analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Molina Healthcare from $196.71 to $202.43. Analyst Commentary Stricter CMS Star rating cut points for 2026 are expected to challenge managed care organizations' ability to maintain high-rated plans, potentially impacting payment and competitiveness.

Shared on06 Sep 25
Fair value Decreased 2.31%

Analysts have revised their outlook on Molina Healthcare to a more cautious stance due to higher-than-expected cost trends, expense pressures, and regulatory uncertainties impacting earnings visibility and risk pool quality, resulting in a lowered consensus price target from $201.36 to $196.71. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite higher-than-expected cost trends and broad-based expense pressures within managed care and exchange businesses, leading to lower earnings visibility for Molina Healthcare.

Shared on07 May 25
Fair value Decreased 43%

Shared on30 Apr 25
Fair value Decreased 8.00%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on23 Apr 25
Fair value Increased 7.01%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on16 Apr 25
Fair value Increased 1.13%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on09 Apr 25
Fair value Increased 9.28%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on02 Apr 25
Fair value Decreased 3.58%

Shared on26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on19 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on10 Mar 25
Fair value Decreased 6.17%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 11.4% to 9.2% and decreased future PE multiple from 13.6x to 11.5x.