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MOH: Margin Recovery Will Rely On Navigating Medicaid Headwinds And ACA Premium Hikes

Published
08 Aug 24
Updated
03 Nov 25
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-53.7%
7D
3.4%

Author's Valuation

US$178.815.0% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 03 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 9.48%

Molina Healthcare's analyst price target has been revised downward from approximately $198 to $179 per share. Analysts cite lower earnings forecasts and ongoing uncertainty in Medicaid and state-level healthcare funding as key drivers of the adjustment.

Shared on 20 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 4.28%

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Molina Healthcare to approximately $198, citing industry-wide optimism about core demand drivers and regulatory clarity. This comes despite concerns over margin pressure and a challenging operating environment.

Shared on 06 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 6.42%

Molina Healthcare's analyst price target has decreased from $202.43 to $189.43. Analysts cite growing industry cost pressures, challenging 2026 Star plan benchmarks, and dampened near-term earnings visibility across managed care companies as key reasons for this revision.

Shared on 21 Sep 25

Fair value Increased 2.90%

Despite increased implementation and margin risks tied to stricter CMS Star ratings, sector cost trends, and uncertain legislative impacts, analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Molina Healthcare from $196.71 to $202.43. Analyst Commentary Stricter CMS Star rating cut points for 2026 are expected to challenge managed care organizations' ability to maintain high-rated plans, potentially impacting payment and competitiveness.

Shared on 06 Sep 25

Fair value Decreased 2.31%

Analysts have revised their outlook on Molina Healthcare to a more cautious stance due to higher-than-expected cost trends, expense pressures, and regulatory uncertainties impacting earnings visibility and risk pool quality, resulting in a lowered consensus price target from $201.36 to $196.71. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite higher-than-expected cost trends and broad-based expense pressures within managed care and exchange businesses, leading to lower earnings visibility for Molina Healthcare.

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Decreased 43%

Shared on 30 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 8.00%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 7.01%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 16 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 1.13%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 9.28%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 3.58%

Shared on 26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 6.17%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 11.4% to 9.2% and decreased future PE multiple from 13.6x to 11.5x.