Aseguradora líder en Medicaid y Obamacare; retiró su guía 2025 por costos médicos más altos y la acción cayó ~40 %. La tesis es que el castigo fue exagerado y los márgenes pueden recuperarse en 2026.
Catalizadores
- Subida de primas ACA 2026 (29 estados).
- Nuevos contratos Medicaid con mejores tarifas.
- Recompra de acciones (US$ 2 000 M aprobados).
Supuestos del modelo
Riesgos
- Costos médicos sigan altos (> 92 % MLR).
- Recorte de subsidios ACA / Medicaid.
- Posibles multas regulatorias.
Valoración rápida
- Fair Value (Simple Valuator): US$ 26,83 → la acción luce 28,9 % sobrevalorada con los supuestos actuales.
- Sin embargo, el mercado la valora a P/B 0,6× y P/E ≈ 8×, muy por debajo de sus pares (P/E sector ≈ 15×).
Postura
Mantengo una posición táctica: espero el reporte del 25-jul-25.
- Si el MLR baja y confirman subidas de primas, aumentaré.
- Si el EPS vuelve a caer > 10 %, reduciré exposición.
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