At-home Health Monitoring And Digital Diagnostics Will Empower Self-Care

Key Takeaways

• Expansion into at-home diagnostics and global infectious disease testing positions OraSure for sustained growth and market share gains as self-care trends accelerate.
  
• Strategic manufacturing shifts, product innovation, and key partnerships enhance efficiency, margin potential, and revenue diversification through digital and molecular diagnostics.
  
• Heavy reliance on a narrow product focus, rising competition, and pricing pressures threaten OraSure’s long-term growth, profitability, and overall market relevance.

Catalysts

Develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes diagnostic products, specimen collection devices, and other diagnostic products in the United States, Europe, Africa, and internationally.

• OraSure is set to expand its portfolio of at-home diagnostic and health monitoring solutions, with multiple new product launches in 2025—including at-home tests for sexually transmitted infections and novel microbiome extraction kits—tapping into the robust and growing demand for convenient self-care and fueling future revenue growth.
  
• The company’s diagnostics arm is benefiting from rising global awareness and screening initiatives for infectious diseases, as seen with successful pilots for hepatitis C self-testing in Africa and continued international expansion, positioning OraSure to capture market share in regions with long-term public health priorities, which should underpin sustained core revenue growth.
  
• Strategic investments in automation, site consolidation, and in-sourcing of manufacturing from contract facilities to expanded internal capacity are forecast to drive significant operating efficiencies and enhance gross margins, especially in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, supporting improvements in net earnings.
  
• The integration of Sherlock Biosciences brings an accelerated pipeline of low-cost, disposable molecular diagnostics platforms to OraSure, with first regulatory submissions expected by the end of 2025 and expansion into additional infectious disease targets, which can diversify revenue streams and deliver higher margins as these products scale.
  
• Strong customer relationships and expanding partnerships with genomics and telehealth firms such as Myriad Genetics, Fulgent Genetics, and Everlywell validate OraSure’s position as a key provider of digitally integrated, user-friendly sample collection and diagnostic solutions, laying the groundwork for accelerated revenue growth as digital health adoption increases globally.

OraSure Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on OraSure Technologies compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming OraSure Technologies's revenue will decrease by 2.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Even the bullish analysts are not forecasting that OraSure Technologies will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate OraSure Technologies's profit margin will increase from -19.8% to the average US Medical Equipment industry of 13.2% in 3 years.
• If OraSure Technologies's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $19.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.26) by about May 2028, up from $-32.0 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -5.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 33.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.31% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.12%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

OraSure Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Increasing healthcare commoditization and price transparency may subject OraSure to greater pricing pressure on its core diagnostic tools and tests, potentially limiting the company’s ability to expand revenues and compressing overall profitability over time.
  
• The growing trend toward automation and fully integrated digital diagnostics platforms across the healthcare sector could diminish OraSure’s market relevance, as it is primarily focused on physical rapid testing kits, which may weaken its long-term revenue growth and market share.
  
• OraSure remains heavily reliant on a limited portfolio of rapid tests, including HIV, HCV, and COVID-19 products, leaving it vulnerable to market saturation, reduced funding, and declining demand—this concentration risk threatens top-line revenue and earnings stability.
  
• Intensified competitive pressures from larger diagnostics companies and industry commoditization, especially as patents expire and rapid tests become more generic, are likely to further erode gross margins and put sustained downward pressure on net margins and cash flow.
  
• The company’s recent financials show declining or flat core revenues and negative operating cash flow, while SMS segment growth is not offsetting disruption from major customers; combined with persistent regulatory and funding uncertainties, these headwinds may inhibit OraSure’s ability to deliver consistent revenue growth and drive sustained profitability.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for OraSure Technologies is $6.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of OraSure Technologies's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $6.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $3.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $149.1 million, earnings will come to $19.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
  
• Given the current share price of $2.43, the bullish analyst price target of $6.0 is 59.5% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.