Last Update 08 Dec 25

APYX: Workflow Console Rollout Will Drive Bullish Demand Inflection

Analysts have raised their price target on Apyx Medical to $8.00, citing increasing optimism that the AYON all in one console, which integrates the company's Renuvion technology with multiple surgical offerings, can drive an inflection in demand by streamlining workflows and addressing a large, growing patient base.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research notes highlight a shift in sentiment as bullish analysts point to AYON as a key driver of Apyx Medical's next phase of growth, underpinning the higher price target.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts argue that the all in one AYON console, integrating Renuvion with five additional surgical offerings, expands Apyx's addressable market and supports a higher long term growth algorithm.
The ability of AYON to streamline operating room workflows and consolidate multiple devices into a single platform is seen as improving procedural efficiency, which could accelerate system adoption and recurring utilization revenue.
AYON's differentiated technology and appeal to a large, growing patient base are viewed as sustainable competitive advantages that can support margin expansion and justify the move to an Outperform rating and higher valuation multiples.
Improving stock performance around the Q3 report, alongside evidence of traction for AYON, is interpreted as an early sign that execution risk is moderating and that the business is moving into a demand inflection phase.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts remain cautious that expectations for an AYON driven inflection may be embedded too quickly into the share price, limiting near term upside if adoption ramps more gradually than anticipated.
There is ongoing concern around execution risk, including the company's ability to scale commercial efforts, train physicians, and convert interest in the platform into consistent, high quality revenue growth.
Some analysts note that while workflow and technology advantages are compelling, competitive responses from other surgical technology providers could pressure pricing power and temper long term margin expansion.
Uncertainty around the durability of procedure volume growth in a macro environment that could pressure elective spending is cited as a risk to both the raised price target and premium valuation frameworks.

What's in the News

Apyx Medical secured regulatory approval and initiated the commercial launch of its Apyx One console and single use handpieces in South Korea, with initial shipments scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2025, expanding its international footprint and multi energy platform presence (Key Developments).
The company raised its total revenue guidance for full year 2025 to a range of $50.5 million to $52.5 million, modestly above its prior outlook and reflecting increased confidence in demand trends versus 2024 results (Key Developments).
Apyx submitted a new 510(k) notification to the U.S. FDA seeking to expand the AYON Body Contouring System label to include power liposuction, a move that would position AYON as a fully integrated body contouring platform if cleared (Key Developments).
The company completed a $10 million follow on equity offering of common stock and related securities, bolstering its balance sheet to support commercial expansion and product development (Key Developments).
Officers and directors agreed to 90 day lock up periods on common stock, options, warrants, and pre funded warrants following the follow on offering, limiting insider share sales until February 17, 2026, unless waived by the underwriter (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: maintained at $6.00 per share, indicating no change in the base intrinsic value estimate.
Discount Rate: unchanged at 8.24 percent, reflecting a stable perceived risk profile.
Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at approximately 12.98 percent, signaling stable long term topline growth expectations.
Net Profit Margin: decreased modestly from 13.38 percent to 13.12 percent, implying slightly lower projected profitability levels.
Future P/E: increased slightly from 32.10x to 32.73x, suggesting a modest expansion in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Strong adoption of AYON system and expansion into China are expected to accelerate revenue growth and increase international market presence.
Strategic hires and cost reduction initiatives enhance sales execution, operational efficiency, and support margin expansion and long-term earnings improvement.
Revenue instability, ongoing losses, market challenges, international risk, and dependence on a few products threaten Apyx Medical's growth, profitability, and long-term stability.

Catalysts

About Apyx Medical

An energy technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electrosurgical equipment and medical devices in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The recent launch and enthusiastic early adoption of the AYON system-a next-generation, comprehensive body contouring platform-defies broader industry softness, as surgeons seek innovative, workflow-improving minimally invasive solutions. This is likely to accelerate revenue growth and expand operating leverage as commercial adoption ramps in the second half of 2025 and beyond.
The company's expansion into China, supported by a well-connected distribution partner and newly granted market clearance, positions Apyx to capture demand from a large and rapidly growing middle
and upper-class population seeking aesthetic procedures, boosting international revenue growth over the next several years.
Strategic senior sales hires for North America, Europe, and Asia, each with deep experience in driving adoption of advanced aesthetic devices, are expected to strengthen local sales execution and market penetration, increasing recurring revenue streams and supporting potential improvements in operating margins.
Apyx is poised to benefit from the growing market of patients experiencing skin laxity post-significant weight loss, particularly those on GLP-1 drugs-a demographic that is expanding rapidly and fueling demand for minimally invasive procedures, supporting higher volumes and top-line growth.
Recent cost-reduction and restructuring initiatives have meaningfully improved the company's cash burn and operating expense base, enhancing financial flexibility to invest in product innovation and commercial growth, which should support margin expansion and future earnings improvement.

Apyx Medical Earnings and Revenue Growth

Apyx Medical Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Apyx Medical's revenue will grow by 12.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Apyx Medical will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Apyx Medical's profit margin will increase from -37.1% to the average US Medical Equipment industry of 12.5% in 3 years.
If Apyx Medical's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $8.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.18) by about September 2028, up from $-17.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 28.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.67%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Apyx Medical Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's overall revenue declined year-over-year, primarily from a 29% drop in the OEM segment, and domestic Advanced Energy sales saw stagnant or modest decreases, indicating potential difficulty in maintaining consistent top-line growth-this instability may pressure future revenue and earnings.
Ongoing net losses, with a $3.8 million net loss in Q2 2025 and cash burn albeit reduced, suggest that Apyx has yet to achieve sustainable profitability, and continued high operating expenses, if not offset by strong sales growth, could further delay positive net margins and earnings.
The aesthetic medical device market remains "challenged" with subdued capital equipment spending, and despite early excitement around AYON, there is execution risk if enthusiasm does not translate to sustained adoption as broader customer segments may remain hesitant-potentially resulting in lower-than-anticipated revenue growth and margin pressure.
International expansion, particularly in China, is in a nascent phase; initial sales and partnerships look promising but expose Apyx to heightened geopolitical, regulatory, and market entry risks, which could impact both revenue reliability and international profitability.
The company remains highly reliant on Renuvion and AYON products, with limited mention of further diversification; setbacks such as intensified competition, disappointing clinical outcomes or shifting customer preferences toward non-invasive alternatives may significantly impact Apyx's market share, thereby increasing revenue volatility and risk to long-term margin and earnings stability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $4.0 for Apyx Medical based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $65.5 million, earnings will come to $8.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.7%.
Given the current share price of $1.9, the analyst price target of $4.0 is 52.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Minimally Invasive Aesthetic Procedures Will Expand International Markets