Healthy Snack Expansion And Automation Will Enhance Future Prospects Amid Global Risks

Key Takeaways

• Expansion into diverse product lines and healthier snacks targets growth by appealing to new and shifting consumer preferences.
  
• Automation and optimized spending strategies are poised to enhance cost efficiencies and improve earnings potential.
  
• Geopolitical tensions and market headwinds threaten profitability, while cost-cutting and rising input costs may hinder long-term growth if not balanced.

Catalysts

Engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide.

• PepsiCo is focusing on expanding its diverse product lines, such as Lay’s, Doritos, and Tostitos, to boost volume and penetrate new consumer segments. This strategic diversity is expected to enhance revenue growth in the long term.
  
• Investments in productivity improvements via automation of the supply chain and digitalization of operations are key initiatives anticipated to significantly reduce costs and improve net margins going forward.
  
• PepsiCo's strategic focus on growing its healthier snack segments and multicultural offerings, tapping into shifting Gen Z eating patterns, is expected to drive future revenue growth.
  
• The company's expansion into international markets, and the anticipated rebound in strained markets like China and Western Europe, could positively impact future earnings by contributing to growth diversification.
  
• Continuing efforts to optimize demand generation and advertising ROI are expected to support efficient spending and potentially improve earnings per share through better allocation of resources.
  

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming PepsiCo's revenue will grow by 3.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.2% today to 12.9% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $13.1 billion (and earnings per share of $9.62) by about December 2027, up from $9.4 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.4x on those 2027 earnings, down from 23.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Beverage industry at 24.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.54% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.92%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

• Geopolitical tensions, particularly in key international markets like the Middle East and China, may negatively impact PepsiCo’s revenue growth and overall profitability, introducing a level of uncertainty to international performance.
  
• Slower consumer recovery and headwinds in the U.S. market may constrain revenue growth for Frito-Lay, as evidenced by its recent volume declines, impacting the segment's net margins and overall profitability.
  
• Increased focus on productivity and cost-cutting measures could lead to underinvestment in growth initiatives, potentially affecting long-term revenue and earnings growth if not balanced correctly.
  
• Rising input costs and investment in affordability may pressure operating margins, particularly if pricing investments do not generate the anticipated increase in demand.
  
• The energy drink category faces a slowdown due to reduced convenience store traffic, which could limit revenue growth potential in PepsiCo’s North American Beverages segment, impacting its ability to drive margin expansion as planned.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $181.13 for PepsiCo based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $198.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $148.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $101.7 billion, earnings will come to $13.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.9%.
• Given the current share price of $156.14, the analyst's price target of $181.13 is 13.8% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.