Long-Term LNG Demand May Offset Short-Term Margin Pressure and Regulatory Headwinds

Catalysts

About Venture Global

Venture Global is a U.S.-based liquefied natural gas producer delivering affordable and reliable LNG to global markets.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• While Venture Global continues to deliver record revenue and rapid production growth, ongoing arbitration proceedings create prolonged uncertainty. This could result in sizable cash outflows and reduced net margins if outcomes are unfavorable.
• Although the company benefits from robust demand for LNG driven by energy transition and electrification trends, the significant capital investments required for project expansions and schedule adherence may pressure free cash flow and returns if commodity pricing moderates or construction costs escalate further.
• Venture Global’s competitive advantage from data-driven operational efficiency and modular facility design improves cost structure and productivity. However, exposure to operational risks and supply chain disruptions could erode these benefits and impair future earnings.
• Despite entering long-term supply agreements that secure stable future revenues, the growing portion of cargos sold under non-20-year or short-term contracts could expose earnings to greater commodity price volatility and lower fixed fees.
• While global decarbonization and increased energy demand, particularly from data centers and new electrified industries, are likely to sustain LNG growth, acceleration in renewable energy adoption or regulatory changes unfavorable to natural gas could challenge Venture Global’s long-term revenue trajectory.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Venture Global compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bearish analysts are assuming Venture Global's revenue will grow by 12.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 19.0% today to 0.5% in 3 years time.
• The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach $72.0 million (and earnings per share of $0.03) by about December 2028, down from $2.1 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $2.2 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 411.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Oil and Gas industry at 13.6x.
• The bearish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.18% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.07%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• If ongoing arbitration proceedings result in substantial cash awards against Venture Global, the company could face significant cash outflows over several years. This could put pressure on net margins and restrict available funds for future expansion.
• A rapid increase in global LNG supply or accelerated growth in renewable energy could erode forward natural gas prices. This would reduce future revenue and make it more challenging to achieve positive returns across the company’s major projects.
• Further delays or unexpected cost overruns in the construction and commissioning of large projects, particularly CP2 and Plaquemines, could increase capital expenditures. This would strain cash flow and reduce profitability.
• If a larger proportion of future cargos are sold under short-term or non-20-year contracts, Venture Global’s earnings may become increasingly volatile and vulnerable to market price fluctuations. This could impact long-term revenue stability.
• Major regulatory changes targeting natural gas usage or unfavorable geopolitical developments, including policies discouraging fossil fuel infrastructure, could impair Venture Global's ability to sign new long-term contracts. This would ultimately reduce future revenue and earnings potential.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bearish price target for Venture Global is $9.0, which represents up to two standard deviations below the consensus price target of $13.75. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Venture Global's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $21.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $9.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bearish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $15.5 billion, earnings will come to $72.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 411.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.1%.
  
• Given the current share price of $6.63, the analyst price target of $9.0 is 26.3% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying business to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.