Last Update07 Oct 25Fair value Decreased 23%
$INR - Fair value price correction from $39 -> $30.
RISKS: Commodity price volatility (WTI/HH); execution vs. capex and well results; regulatory/environmental in OH/PA; small-cap liquidity/IPO overhang.
Conclusion:
- Fundamentally supported by strong H1 cash generation, 2025 growth guidance, bigger borrowing base, and insider buying; technically, price is below the 50-EMA with neutral RSI. Next earnings: ~Nov 10, 2025.
- Risks: Commodity price volatility (WTI/HH); execution vs. capex and well results; regulatory/environmental in OH/PA; small-cap liquidity/IPO overhang.
Notes (7 Oct 2025):
- Fair value estimate decreased from $39 -> $30.
Notes (8 Sep 2025):
- Earnings context: Q2’25 EPS beat; guidance maintained. FY24 PV-10 $973M under SEC pricing; 2025 capex $240–$280M to drive ~40% volume growth. Borrowing base to $350M.
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