Last Update 11 Dec 25

CHRD: Bakken Consolidation And Buybacks Will Support Stronger Long-Term Cash Returns

Analysts have reduced their average price target for Chord Energy to approximately $123, down modestly from prior levels in the high $120s to low $130s. They cite updated 2025 and 2026 guidance, evolving commodity price assumptions, and a balanced view of the company’s attractive Bakken consolidation strategy against concerns over inventory depth and long-term growth visibility.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance on Chord Energy, with views divided between confidence in the company’s Bakken execution and concerns over the durability of its growth profile and commodity exposure.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight a compelling valuation, pointing to an inline trading multiple with a modest premium to proved developed value that they see as justified by the company’s asset quality and free cash flow potential.
Several notes emphasize Chord’s strong balance sheet and low leverage, which are viewed as strategic advantages that enable disciplined capital returns and the flexibility to pursue additional consolidation in the Bakken.
Recent acquisitions and bolt on deals are seen as accretive to intrinsic value, with lower breakeven acreage and longer laterals expected to enhance capital efficiency and support the post 2026 development pipeline.
Execution on the Bakken consolidation strategy, including integration of newly acquired core rock, is cited as a key driver supporting higher price targets and an attractive risk reward profile for investors focused on scale and operational synergies.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to inventory length and limited visibility into longer term growth as primary overhangs, arguing that these factors cap upside to valuation despite strong near term cash generation.
Some research updates flag weaker gas and NGL realizations and a tilt in preference toward gas heavy peers, which they see as a relative headwind for Chord’s equity performance and a reason for more muted price target adjustments.
Equal weight and neutral stances reflect caution that, while operations and balance sheet quality are solid, the stock already embeds much of the near term execution upside, leaving less margin for error if macro conditions soften.
There is also concern that the pace of consolidation and capital deployment could face diminishing incremental returns if future deals are struck at less attractive valuations or if inventory quality outside current core areas proves mixed.

What's in the News

Chord Energy updated its share repurchase activity, completing the buyback of 3,025,054 shares, or 5.1% of shares outstanding, for $318.03 million under its November 6, 2024 authorization, including 424,937 shares repurchased between July 1 and August 6, 2025 for $45.18 million (company filing).
Under a separate program announced August 6, 2025, the company repurchased 363,507 shares between August 1 and September 30, 2025, representing 0.63% of shares outstanding for $37.83 million (company filing).
Chord Energy reported third quarter 2025 production essentially flat year over year at 280.9 MBoepd versus 280.8 MBoepd, with slightly lower crude oil volumes partially offset by higher NGL production and steady natural gas output (company production update).
The company issued fourth quarter 2025 production guidance calling for 268.7 to 278.7 MBoepd, with oil volumes of 149.0 to 153.0 MBopd and a modestly softer oil mix, along with full year 2025 guidance for 275.6 to 278.1 MBoepd (company guidance update).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at approximately $127.56 per share, indicating no material revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate edged down slightly from about 6.96% to 6.96%, reflecting a marginal decrease in the assumed cost of capital.
Revenue Growth was effectively unchanged, moving fractionally from approximately 5.66% to 5.66%, implying a stable medium term growth outlook.
Net Profit Margin was essentially flat, ticking up only marginally from about 10.56% to 10.56%, signaling no meaningful shift in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E held steady at roughly 12.66x forward earnings, suggesting the market multiple underpinning the valuation remains consistent.

Operational innovation and advanced analytics are driving efficiency, lowering costs, and supporting sustained growth in profitability and margins.
Strong asset quality, disciplined capital allocation, and favorable market dynamics are expected to bolster long-term cash flow and shareholder returns.
Heavy reliance on a concentrated shale portfolio, regulatory risks, and the global energy transition pose challenges to Chord Energy's future growth, margins, and capital access.

Catalysts

About Chord Energy

Operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong execution of longer-lateral (4-mile) drilling-with early results significantly outperforming expectations-positions Chord to lower breakeven costs and increase access to previously marginal acreage, enabling volume growth with reduced capital intensity and driving higher net margins and free cash flow in the coming years.
Rapid adoption of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced analytics across operational workflows is already yielding notable gains in capital and operating efficiency, and is expected to further reduce per-barrel production costs, directly supporting improved net margins and long-term profitability.
Robust and consistent free cash flow generation-outperforming guidance and enabling 90%+ payout ratios via buybacks and dividends-indicates the potential for continued accelerated earnings per share growth as capital allocation discipline remains a management priority.
Chord's high-quality, low-breakeven asset base in the Williston Basin, coupled with underinvestment in new global oil supply and the slow pace of the energy transition, supports sustained strong demand for U.S. shale oil, bolstering long-term revenue and price realizations.
Energy security concerns and ongoing geopolitical tensions are enhancing the strategic value of U.S. domestic production, likely leading to tighter regional oil differentials and premium market access for efficient operators like Chord, positively impacting realized revenue and cash flow over the long term.

Chord Energy Earnings and Revenue Growth

Chord Energy Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Chord Energy's revenue will decrease by 4.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 5.3% today to 23.2% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.0 billion (and earnings per share of $14.75) by about September 2028, up from $265.7 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 22.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Oil and Gas industry at 12.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 6.33% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.06%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Chord Energy Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Chord Energy's highly concentrated asset base in the Williston Basin exposes it to regional operational disruptions (such as weather or infrastructure bottlenecks) and fast-changing North Dakota/Montana regulatory environments, which could negatively impact long-term revenue stability and increase compliance costs.
The company's core assets are unconventional shale wells, which typically exhibit high initial production decline rates; this persistent need for aggressive drilling and capital deployment to maintain or grow output could pressure net margins and increase capital expenditures over time, especially if efficiency improvements slow or commodity prices decline.
Chord's operations remain fundamentally tied to the long-term demand outlook for oil and natural gas; acceleration of the global energy transition, increased adoption of renewables, electrification of transport, and net-zero policies could structurally reduce oil demand, thereby depressing both price realizations and future revenue growth.
Increasing environmental scrutiny and the likelihood of stricter U.S. and state-level emissions, water management, or drilling regulations could materially raise operating costs and limit drilling activity, which would risk future production volumes and compress net earnings.
The rise in ESG investing and growing institutional divestment from fossil fuels may restrict access to capital markets and decrease the investor pool, potentially elevating Chord Energy's cost of capital and limiting the long-term appreciation potential of its share price.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $133.867 for Chord Energy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $166.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $105.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.4 billion, earnings will come to $1.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
Given the current share price of $102.72, the analyst price target of $133.87 is 23.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Longer Lateral Development And Buybacks Will Drive Improved Capital Efficiency