CHRD: Bakken Consolidation And Buybacks Will Support Stronger Long-Term Cash Returns

Analysts have reduced their average price target for Chord Energy to approximately $123, down modestly from prior levels in the high $120s to low $130s. They cite updated 2025 and 2026 guidance, evolving commodity price assumptions, and a balanced view of the company’s attractive Bakken consolidation strategy against concerns over inventory depth and long-term growth visibility.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance on Chord Energy, with views divided between confidence in the company’s Bakken execution and concerns over the durability of its growth profile and commodity exposure.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight a compelling valuation, pointing to an inline trading multiple with a modest premium to proved developed value that they see as justified by the company’s asset quality and free cash flow potential.
• Several notes emphasize Chord’s strong balance sheet and low leverage, which are viewed as strategic advantages that enable disciplined capital returns and the flexibility to pursue additional consolidation in the Bakken.
• Recent acquisitions and bolt on deals are seen as accretive to intrinsic value, with lower breakeven acreage and longer laterals expected to enhance capital efficiency and support the post 2026 development pipeline.
• Execution on the Bakken consolidation strategy, including integration of newly acquired core rock, is cited as a key driver supporting higher price targets and an attractive risk reward profile for investors focused on scale and operational synergies.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to inventory length and limited visibility into longer term growth as primary overhangs, arguing that these factors cap upside to valuation despite strong near term cash generation.
• Some research updates flag weaker gas and NGL realizations and a tilt in preference toward gas heavy peers, which they see as a relative headwind for Chord’s equity performance and a reason for more muted price target adjustments.
• Equal weight and neutral stances reflect caution that, while operations and balance sheet quality are solid, the stock already embeds much of the near term execution upside, leaving less margin for error if macro conditions soften.
• There is also concern that the pace of consolidation and capital deployment could face diminishing incremental returns if future deals are struck at less attractive valuations or if inventory quality outside current core areas proves mixed.

What's in the News

• Chord Energy updated its share repurchase activity, completing the buyback of 3,025,054 shares, or 5.1% of shares outstanding, for $318.03 million under its November 6, 2024 authorization, including 424,937 shares repurchased between July 1 and August 6, 2025 for $45.18 million (company filing).
• Under a separate program announced August 6, 2025, the company repurchased 363,507 shares between August 1 and September 30, 2025, representing 0.63% of shares outstanding for $37.83 million (company filing).
• Chord Energy reported third quarter 2025 production essentially flat year over year at 280.9 MBoepd versus 280.8 MBoepd, with slightly lower crude oil volumes partially offset by higher NGL production and steady natural gas output (company production update).
• The company issued fourth quarter 2025 production guidance calling for 268.7 to 278.7 MBoepd, with oil volumes of 149.0 to 153.0 MBopd and a modestly softer oil mix, along with full year 2025 guidance for 275.6 to 278.1 MBoepd (company guidance update).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at approximately $127.56 per share, indicating no material revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate edged down slightly from about 6.96% to 6.96%, reflecting a marginal decrease in the assumed cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth was effectively unchanged, moving fractionally from approximately 5.66% to 5.66%, implying a stable medium term growth outlook.
• Net Profit Margin was essentially flat, ticking up only marginally from about 10.56% to 10.56%, signaling no meaningful shift in long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E held steady at roughly 12.66x forward earnings, suggesting the market multiple underpinning the valuation remains consistent.