RJF: Share Repurchases Will Support Earnings Power Into 2026

Analysts modestly raised their blended price target on Raymond James Financial to approximately $183.27 from about $183.80, as they factor in slightly lower revenue growth assumptions but better than previously expected profitability, driven by resilient transactional activity, improved organic growth in the Private Client Group, and continued capital returns.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a generally constructive stance on Raymond James Financial, with most firms nudging price targets higher while keeping ratings clustered around Neutral and Market Perform. The revisions largely acknowledge better execution across key business lines and a healthier macro backdrop, but also highlight valuation and sustainability concerns that temper enthusiasm.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to improving organic growth in the Private Client Group and a disciplined advisor recruiting strategy that is supporting more stable, higher quality earnings.
Stronger than expected transactional revenue and investment banking activity, alongside momentum across multiple business segments, are seen as reinforcing near term earnings power and the case for modest price target upgrades.
Ongoing share repurchases, while maintaining stable capital ratios, are viewed as a supportive capital return strategy that can enhance per share growth and partially offset elevated valuation multiples.
Several models have been revised to reflect higher assets under management and a more constructive market backdrop. If this trend is sustained, it would underpin continued growth in fee based revenues and support current valuation levels.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that the recent surge in capital markets activity, particularly capital raising and M&A, may be unsustainably robust. This introduces downside risk to revenues if volumes normalize.
Some see Raymond James' disciplined approach to growth as contributing to slower expansion versus peers, which could limit multiple expansion and keep the shares anchored near current valuation ranges.
Concerns around a more expensive entry point, coupled with the potential for lower interest rates, create a less favorable near term risk reward profile despite solid underlying fundamentals.
With valuations already elevated across capital markets and wealth management peers, and with no clear near term catalyst, execution will need to remain strong to justify further upside to current price targets.

What's in the News

Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $2 billion with no expiration date, reinforcing Raymond James Financial's commitment to ongoing capital returns (company announcement).
Board approved an 8% increase in the quarterly common stock dividend to $0.54 per share, payable January 16, 2026. This reflects confidence in sustainable earnings power (company announcement).
Company will redeem all 80,500 outstanding shares of its 6.375% Series B Non Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock and related depositary shares on January 2, 2026. This is expected to simplify the capital structure and remove a higher cost layer of capital (company announcement).
Management reiterated its focus on deploying capital first into organic growth and selectively into strategic acquisitions that meet strict cultural, strategic, and return thresholds. This signals openness to M&A while maintaining discipline (management commentary).
From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Raymond James repurchased about 2.1 million shares for $350.02 million, completing a 7.4 million share, $1.10 billion buyback under the prior authorization. This highlights consistent execution on repurchase plans (company disclosure).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has edged down slightly to approximately $183.27 from about $183.80, reflecting modestly more conservative assumptions.
The Discount Rate has decreased marginally to roughly 8.57% from about 8.60%, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
Revenue Growth has been revised down modestly to about 8.85% from roughly 9.20%, signaling somewhat softer top line expectations.
The Net Profit Margin has risen slightly to approximately 15.96% from about 15.76%, incorporating improved profitability assumptions.
The Future P/E has ticked down modestly to around 14.07x from approximately 14.16x, suggesting a slightly less demanding valuation multiple.

Successful recruitment and strategic focus on high-net-worth clients are expected to drive future revenue growth and strengthen long-term revenue streams.
Investment in AI capabilities and strong loan growth may enhance operational efficiencies, improve net margins, and positively impact future earnings.
Heightened market and interest rate uncertainties, competitive M&A landscapes, and tech investment risks could negatively affect revenue growth, profitability, and net margins.

Catalysts

About Raymond James Financial

A diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Raymond James' successful recruiting of financial advisors with high trailing production and assets from other firms has bolstered client assets under administration, which is expected to drive future revenue growth through increased client assets and new business inflows.
The establishment of a Chief AI Officer role highlights Raymond James' investment in artificial intelligence to enhance financial professional capabilities and client service, potentially improving net margins through increased operational efficiencies.
The bank segment's strong loan growth, particularly in securities-based lending, coupled with high credit quality, suggests potential increases in net interest income and margins, contributing positively to future earnings.
Consistent share repurchases, underpinned by strong capital and liquidity positions, indicate a commitment to enhancing shareholder value through EPS growth, alongside maintaining capacity for strategic acquisitions that align with cultural and financial goals.
The strategic focus on providing comprehensive private investment alternatives to high-net-worth clients through a robust platform is poised to attract more high-value clients, potentially increasing fee-based revenues and strengthening long-term revenue streams.

Raymond James Financial Earnings and Revenue Growth

Raymond James Financial Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Raymond James Financial's revenue will grow by 8.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 15.4% today to 15.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.7 billion (and earnings per share of $14.29) by about September 2028, up from $2.1 billion today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 15.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 26.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.28% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.39%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Raymond James Financial Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heightened market uncertainty and volatility associated with tariff negotiations could negatively impact investment banking closings, leading to reduced revenue from this segment.
Market and interest rate uncertainty pose challenges to the fixed income market, which could unfavorably impact brokerage revenues and related earnings.
Increased client caution due to macroeconomic uncertainty may impact net new asset growth and thus lower overall revenue growth.
Competitive M&A landscapes may pressure Raymond James to stretch on valuations, affecting profitability and capital allocation efficiency.
The firm's commitment to significant investment in technology, such as AI, though potentially beneficial, presents risks around overspending without clear short-term financial returns, impacting net margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $173.273 for Raymond James Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $17.3 billion, earnings will come to $2.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $165.59, the analyst price target of $173.27 is 4.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Raymond James Financial?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

RJF: Private Client Group Momentum And Share Buybacks Will Drive Returns