Aging US Population Will Drive Retirement Demand

Key Takeaways

• Rising demand for retirement income products, supported by demographic shifts and product innovation, is fueling Corebridge's growth and market positioning.
  
• Digital modernization, risk reduction strategies, and a capital-light model are driving efficiency, stability, and improved shareholder returns.
  
• Greater dependence on fee-based and spread-based products, vulnerable partnerships, and technology lag may constrain Corebridge's profitability, revenue growth, and competitive positioning.

Catalysts

Provides retirement solutions and insurance products in the United States.

• Corebridge is set to benefit from robust growth in individual retirement and annuities sales as the aging U.S. population turns 65 in record numbers, fueling increased demand for guaranteed income products-supporting long-term revenue and AUM expansion.
  
• Ongoing shifts from defined benefit pensions to IRAs and 401(k)s are creating sustained secular tailwinds for lifetime income and insurance solutions, positioning Corebridge's broad, innovative annuity and retirement product suite for above-market sales growth and improved future earnings.
  
• The company's focused investments in digital modernization, AI-driven underwriting, and partnerships have led to improved customer acquisition, operating efficiencies, and a 14% reduction in general operating expenses since IPO, driving structurally lower expense ratios and higher net margins.
  
• The transformative exit from legacy variable annuity risk via the reinsurance transaction has enhanced Corebridge's balance sheet, reducing earnings volatility and freeing significant capital for EPS-accretive share repurchases-expected to accelerate EPS growth and return on equity.
  
• Consistent execution of a capital-light, fee-based revenue mix in Group Retirement and growing advisory/brokerage assets are improving revenue diversification and cash flow stability, further supporting sustainable earnings and shareholder capital returns.

Corebridge Financial Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Corebridge Financial's revenue will grow by 10.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.1% today to 13.6% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.0 billion (and earnings per share of $6.61) by about August 2028, up from $-337.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $2.6 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -55.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Diversified Financial industry at 17.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.82%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Corebridge Financial Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Corebridge's transition away from variable annuities removes a declining but still material earnings source and increases concentration in spread-based and fee-based products; sustained low or declining interest rates could compress investment portfolio yields and reduce overall profitability and net margins.
  
• Ongoing shifts in Group Retirement from spread-based to fee-based products, while positive for capital-light growth, involve fee income that is currently growing only modestly and is exposed to outflows and large plan exits, which can depress revenue if not replaced with new inflows.
  
• The reliance on strategic distribution partnerships-including those inherited from AIG and new RILA channels-poses risks if any major relationships are lost or if competitive forces erode Corebridge's shelf space; this could impact both sales growth and top-line revenue.
  
• Climate change impacts and episodic volatility in the Institutional Markets segment (such as pension risk transfer and GICs), as well as periods of weak alternative asset performance and real estate valuations, can contribute to uneven reserve and income growth, affecting both earnings stability and long-term ROE.
  
• While management highlights digitization and AI as efficiency drivers, slower progress in full end-to-end process modernization in businesses outside Life Insurance may limit operating leverage improvements and keep expense ratios higher than industry leaders, constraining future margin expansion.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $41.154 for Corebridge Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $47.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $37.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $22.0 billion, earnings will come to $3.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
  
• Given the current share price of $34.3, the analyst price target of $41.15 is 16.7% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.