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Highly profitable bank. Overvaluated / Hold.

RO
Rodrigo_ToledoInvested
Community Contributor

Published

August 20 2024

Updated

August 20 2024

Narratives are currently in beta

Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (NYSE BFH) is a highly profitable bank focused on growing its portfolio of receivables, partners and customers. Although the company still distributes little of its earnings in the form of buybacks and dividends, the retained capital is reinvested at attractive rates, which compensate for the low payout. In a pessimistic scenario, the minority interest is protected by US$48.89 per share of tangible common equity, which is probably undervalued due to the volume of provisions made over the last two years. Bread Financial is a more complex thesis compared to the other banks in my portfolio, as it deals with regulatory uncertainties that challenge its business model. However, the shareholder who tolerated the high volatility has been rewarded. After all, the asset rose 52% from January to the end of July 2024, surpassing my price ceiling of US$50.00 per share. From now on, the two main points of attention are losses and how the company will adapt to the new late fee regulation. Even so, recent results have been quite positive.

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Disclaimer

The user Rodrigo_Toledo has a position in NYSE:BFH. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
US$50.0
26.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Rodrigo_Toledo's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture06b20132016201920222024202520282029Revenue US$3.5bEarnings US$668.5m
% p.a.
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Increase
Current revenue growth rate
17.14%
Consumer Finance revenue growth rate
0.51%