CBOE: Upcoming Product Launches And Data Revenues Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Cboe Global Markets higher to about $262 from roughly $256, citing stronger than expected double digit growth across all three business lines (particularly in data revenues) and solid quarterly results that offset modest adjustments to fee rate assumptions and longer term valuation multiples.

Analyst Commentary

Street research remains broadly constructive on Cboe Global Markets, with most recent target price revisions skewing higher and clustering around the mid to high $260s, implying upside to current trading levels. Commentary emphasizes the durability of growth across trading, derivatives, and data, while also flagging fee rate pressure and competitive dynamics in options as key watchpoints for execution.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are lifting price targets into the upper $260s and high $280s range, reflecting greater confidence that Cboe can sustain premium growth and earnings power relative to peers.
Record quarterly performance, with double digit revenue growth across all business lines, is viewed as evidence that Cboe's diversified model is executing well even in mixed volatility and volume environments.
Data and access revenues, particularly the roughly low teens year over year growth in Data Vantage, are seen as high quality, recurring revenue streams that justify higher valuation multiples and support upward revisions to forward guidance.
Options volumes continue to outpace broader exchange activity, reinforcing the thesis that Cboe is structurally leveraged to the ongoing institutional and retail adoption of listed options as a core trading and hedging tool.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight fee rate compression in multi listed options, including a reported low double digit quarter over quarter decline in revenue capture, as a risk to near term revenue and margin assumptions.
Strategic pricing moves aimed at defending or growing market share in options are viewed as potentially dilutive to near term earnings, raising questions about the balance between volume growth and profitability.
Neutral stances emphasize that receding volatility across most asset classes and softer exchange volumes could cap upside to trading related revenues if macro conditions remain benign.
Some cautious views argue that, with the stock approaching raised target levels, the risk reward looks more balanced until there is clearer evidence that higher data growth and options share gains can fully offset lower capture rates.

What's in the News

Cboe is preparing to launch its own federally regulated prediction markets within months, but will initially avoid sports related event contracts as it enters the rapidly growing sector (Bloomberg).
Cboe plans to launch futures and options on the new equal weighted Cboe Magnificent 10 Index (MGTN) on December 8, 2025, giving investors a single, cash settled way to trade and hedge a basket of leading U.S. tech and growth stocks.
The company will introduce Cboe Bitcoin Continuous Futures (PBT) and Cboe Ether Continuous Futures (PET) on December 15, 2025, offering 10 year, cash settled contracts designed to provide perpetual style crypto exposure with daily cash adjustments.
Cboe raised its 2025 guidance, now expecting organic total net revenue growth in the low double digit to mid teens range and stronger Data Vantage revenue growth, reflecting confidence in demand for its data and trading products.

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to about $262 from roughly $256, reflecting modestly higher long term earnings expectations.
The discount rate has edged down marginally to about 8.24 percent from roughly 8.24 percent, implying a slightly lower required return on equity.
The revenue growth assumption has improved slightly, with the long term decline easing to about negative 16.6 percent from roughly negative 16.6 percent.
The net profit margin forecast has ticked down marginally to about 44.4 percent from roughly 44.4 percent, suggesting a slightly more conservative profitability outlook.
The future P/E multiple has risen modestly to about 29.1x from roughly 28.3x, indicating a small increase in the valuation applied to forward earnings.

Expansion in derivatives, data, and global trading drives growth, aided by retail investor activity and increasing use of digital investment platforms.
Strategic international expansion and recurring high-margin data services enhance revenue stability, while technology investment and divestitures improve efficiency and margins.
Heavy reliance on key index partnerships, emerging fintech threats, and costly global expansion could compress margins and limit future growth if diversification efforts fall short.

Catalysts

About Cboe Global Markets

Through its subsidiaries, operates as an options exchange in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Cboe is experiencing broad-based growth across derivatives, data, and global spot markets, positioning it to benefit from ongoing increases in electronic trading volume and automation; these trends are likely to drive higher transaction-based revenue and support further top-line growth.
There is a structural tailwind from expanding retail investor participation-especially in options and through digital investment platforms-which is fueling record adoption of SPX 0DTE options and could materially increase both trading volumes and net revenues.
Strategic international expansion, particularly in Europe and the Asia Pacific region, is unlocking new sources of trading activity and recurring market data demand; this global diversification is likely to increase Cboe's addressable market and support persistent revenue growth.
Cboe's Data Vantage (market data, analytics, and index licensing) is demonstrating consistent double-digit revenue growth, supported by high-margin, recurring subscription sales, which enhances the predictability and profitability of earnings.
Focused resource allocation (such as divesting underperforming segments like Japanese equities) and ongoing investment in scalable technology infrastructure are driving operating leverage, improving efficiency, and supporting sustainable margin expansion.

Cboe Global Markets Earnings and Revenue Growth

Cboe Global Markets Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Cboe Global Markets's revenue will decrease by 16.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 19.8% today to 42.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.1 billion (and earnings per share of $11.11) by about September 2028, up from $896.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 27.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 26.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.09% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.13%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Cboe Global Markets Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Cboe's significant reliance on its proprietary S&P index options franchise and the upcoming need to renew its long-term partnership with S&P creates concentration risk; any material change or non-renewal in that relationship could disrupt core revenue streams and impact future earnings.
Widespread adoption of decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization, and broader blockchain-based trading-areas acknowledged as "hot topics" but still in flux-could bypass traditional exchange infrastructure, ultimately weakening transaction volumes and compressing Cboe's fees and revenue growth over the long term.
Continued industry consolidation and intensifying global competition from both established exchanges and fintech disruptors threaten to erode market share, potentially driving fee compression and reducing Cboe's net margins.
High ongoing investments in technology, cybersecurity, and global expansion, while necessary for maintaining competitiveness, may increase costs faster than revenues can scale if new product or regional growth disappoints, thereby putting downward pressure on operating margins and long-term profitability.
Cboe's exit from lower-performing markets (such as the wind-down of its Japanese equities business) reflects a disciplined focus on core strengths, but also signals execution risk and limits the speed of international diversification, which could constrain future top-line and earnings growth if global opportunities are not fully realized.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $247.467 for Cboe Global Markets based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $265.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $216.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.6 billion, earnings will come to $1.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.1%.
Given the current share price of $235.41, the analyst price target of $247.47 is 4.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

CBOE: New Fee Dynamics And Earnings Guidance Will Shape Near-Term Outlook