Decisive Moves And Seasonal Recoveries Poised To Boost Growth And Margins In Hospitality Sector

Key Takeaways

• Strategic cost-efficiency measures and global expansion efforts aim to significantly reduce operational costs and improve net margins.
  
• Revenue growth anticipated from normalized weather conditions, price increases, and enhanced guest experiences at new and existing resorts.
  
• Vail Resorts faces significant earnings risks due to weather dependence, geographic concentration, and industry shifts impacting season pass sales and skier visitation.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally.

• The implementation of a resource efficiency transformation plan expected to achieve $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026 indicates a strategic move towards enhancing organizational effectiveness and scale, which could positively impact net margins by reducing operational costs and improving operating leverage as the company expands and grows globally.
  
• Anticipated return to normal weather conditions after a year of challenging weather and a significant decline in skier visitation due to abnormal snowfall, suggesting potential revenue growth from increased visitation and ancillary spending in the upcoming seasons.
  
• Price increases for pass products, with an 8% price increase for the 2024-2025 season over the previous year, alongside growth in ancillary spending per visit across ski school, dining, and rental businesses, are expected to drive revenue growth and possibly improve net margins.
  
• The addition of Crans-Montana and the focus on executing with excellence in the newly acquired resort, combined with strategic capital investments in lift, terrain, and food and beverage expansion, are likely to enhance the guest experience, stimulate higher visitation, and contribute to revenue growth from both ticket sales and ancillary services.
  
• Ongoing loyalty among renewing pass holders, particularly among the most tenured, demonstrating a stable and potentially growing base of revenue through advanced commitment strategy despite a slight decrease in pass product sales units, indicating a robust foundation for future earnings growth as pass sales dollars continue to increase.

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Vail Resorts's revenue will grow by 4.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.0% today to 10.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $335.7 million (and earnings per share of $8.75) by about November 2027, up from $230.4 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $379 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $292.3 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.2x on those 2027 earnings, down from 28.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 24.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.78% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.44%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

• The decline in total units of season pass sales versus the previous year, driven by unfavorable weather conditions and industry normalization, suggests a risk of reduced future revenue from this key income source.
  
• Skier visitation declined 9.5% compared to the prior year, indicating potential volatility in core revenue streams related to unfavorable weather conditions and broader industry shifts.
  
• An 8% decline in skier visitation at North American resorts due to limited natural snow and variable temperatures could impact resort-reported EBITDA negatively by reducing income from core business operations.
  
• The fourth quarter resort reported EBITDA decline, primarily driven by the underperformance in the Australian winter business due to significantly lower snowfall, suggests earnings are at risk from geographic concentration and climate variability.
  
• The expected $10 million decline of resort reported EBITDA compared to the prior year period due to record low snowfall in Australia highlights the risk to earnings from dependence on weather conditions for operational success.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $195.42 for Vail Resorts based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $250.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $155.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $3.2 billion, earnings will come to $335.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
• Given the current share price of $174.95, the analyst's price target of $195.42 is 10.5% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.