Last Update 04 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.72%

LVS: Future Returns Will Reflect Singapore Strength And Ongoing Macau Recovery Risks

Analysts have nudged their price target on Las Vegas Sands higher to $70 from $60, citing an impressive Q3 beat driven by Singapore strength, better than feared Macau performance, and ongoing benefits from refreshed promotional and marketing strategies.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst sentiment around Las Vegas Sands has tilted more constructive following the Q3 print, with recent revisions underscoring confidence in the company’s execution and regional diversification, particularly in Singapore. At the same time, lingering concerns about Macau’s pace of recovery are tempering enthusiasm and keeping expectations grounded.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to the recent price target increase to $70 as evidence that earnings power is being revised higher, with valuation seen as still attractive relative to growth prospects.
The strong and consistent outperformance in Singapore is viewed as a high quality earnings driver, supporting a re-rating as investors better appreciate the durability of that market.
Improvement in promotional and marketing strategies is seen as enhancing customer acquisition and spend efficiency, which could support margin expansion and higher long-term free cash flow.
Bullish analysts argue that the market is mispricing the value of Singapore operations, noting that the implied per share contribution lags internal estimates, creating a perceived upside gap in the stock.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight disappointing Golden Week trends in Macau, with weaker-than-expected visitation and gaming revenue raising questions about the near-term trajectory of that market.
The uneven recovery in Macau, including a recent week-over-week revenue decline, fuels caution that consensus expectations for a clean, linear rebound may be too optimistic.
Exposure to broader Macau market volatility, including shifts in tourism patterns and regulatory overhangs, is seen as a key risk to earnings visibility and justifies some valuation discount.
Some investors remain wary that, despite recent beats, Macau estimates could face pressure if softer monthly trends persist, constraining multiple expansion even as Singapore performs well.

What's in the News

Las Vegas Sands shares trade in sympathy with broader sports and gaming names as Cboe prepares to launch a federally regulated prediction market platform that highlights investor interest in gambling adjacencies (Bloomberg).
Macau facing a fourth tropical storm in five weeks has pressured trading in Macau exposed casino operators, including Las Vegas Sands, as investors weigh potential volatility in visitation and gaming revenue (Macau Business).
The Board of Directors approved a $0.20 increase to the recurring annual common dividend for 2026, lifting it to $1.20 per share, or $0.30 per share per quarter.
Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, Las Vegas Sands repurchased about 9.2 million shares for roughly $500 million, completing a multiyear buyback totaling 121.9 million shares, or 16.45 percent of shares outstanding, for $6.04 billion.
The company expanded its share repurchase authorization by an additional $2 billion and extended the buyback program through November 3, 2027. This signals a continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to $65.85 from $65.38, reflecting a modest upward adjustment in long term earnings expectations.
The Discount Rate has edged down marginally to 9.16 percent from 9.17 percent, implying a slightly lower required return in the updated model.
Revenue Growth has increased fractionally to 7.43 percent from 7.43 percent, signaling a nearly unchanged but modestly more optimistic top line outlook.
The Net Profit Margin has dipped slightly to 19.47 percent from 19.49 percent, suggesting a virtually stable profitability profile in the forecast period.
The Future P/E has risen modestly to 16.46x from 16.34x, indicating a small expansion in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

The Londoner Macao's full opening leverages scale and quality, boosting revenues and cash flow in a competitive market.
Strategic share repurchases aim to drive EPS growth and return value to shareholders, enhancing long-term growth prospects.
Challenges in the Macao market and strategic limitations, along with intensified competition, could hinder Las Vegas Sands' revenue and profitability growth.

Catalysts

About Las Vegas Sands

Owns, develops, and operates integrated resorts in Macao and Singapore.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The full opening and ramp-up of The Londoner in Macao, with its 2,405 rooms and suites, is expected to boost revenues and cash flows significantly as the property leverages its scale and quality in a competitive market.
Marina Bay Sands (MBS) in Singapore reported record EBITDA from high-value tourism and is expected to continue its growth trajectory supported by increased visitor capacity post-renovations, directly impacting revenue and EBITDA growth.
There is room for continued improvement and growth in EBITDA at both Macao and MBS due to ongoing innovations in gameplay, particularly with side bets in baccarat, which are expected to enhance hold percentages and revenues.
The strategic focus on share repurchases, including an increase in the buyback authorization to $2 billion, is intended to deliver accretive earnings per share (EPS) growth and return value to shareholders over time.
Continued reinvestment in Macao assets and the anticipation of non-gaming investments aligning with governmental expectations suggests sustained long-term growth prospects, potentially improving both revenue and net margins.

Las Vegas Sands Earnings and Revenue Growth

Las Vegas Sands Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Las Vegas Sands's revenue will grow by 6.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.2% today to 17.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.5 billion (and earnings per share of $3.89) by about September 2028, up from $1.4 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $2.0 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 26.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.32% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.61%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Las Vegas Sands Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The Macao market has not grown as anticipated, presenting challenges for revenue and cash flow despite strong assets. [Revenue]
Macao EBITDA margins were down due to lower-than-expected hold in certain segments, indicating pressure on profitability. [Net Margins]
The decision to not pursue the New York casino license due to concerns about potential iGaming legalization suggests limits on strategic expansion opportunities. [Earnings]
Non-Guangdong visitation to Macao is still recovering at only about 75%, which could limit growth prospects in high-spending customer segments. [Revenue]
Increased competition in the premium mass segment in Macao could pressure market share, potentially affecting revenue and profitability. [Revenue and Net Margins]

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $59.9 for Las Vegas Sands based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $73.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $50.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $14.1 billion, earnings will come to $2.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.6%.
Given the current share price of $54.0, the analyst price target of $59.9 is 9.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

LVS: Singapore And Macau Performance Will Balance Ongoing Market Uncertainties