Last Update 07 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 1.32%

YETI: Durable Buybacks And FY26 Setup Will Drive Balanced Future Prospects

Analysts have nudged their blended fair value target for YETI Holdings slightly higher to about $41 per share from roughly $40.47, citing improving visibility into a rebound in global drinkware growth, durable share repurchases that could modestly boost EPS, and a favorable Q3 and FY26 setup supported by new product launches and operating leverage.

Analyst Commentary

Street research points to a more constructive but still balanced outlook for YETI Holdings, with recent commentary highlighting both improving growth visibility and lingering category and competitive risks.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to strengthening visibility around a return to global drinkware growth beginning in Q4, supporting the case for gradual reacceleration in top line and multiple expansion from current levels.
Recent discussions with management suggest FY26 could see an acceleration in revenue growth as new product launches and operating leverage take hold. If executed well, this would support higher long term earnings power.
Robust web traffic trends through August, especially following a July inflection, are viewed as an early signal that Q3 results could surprise to the upside, creating potential near term catalysts for the stock.
An apparent step up in the pace of share repurchases is considered durable and could contribute an incremental 1 percent to 2 percent to the EPS growth algorithm over the next few years, enhancing total shareholder return even in a moderate demand environment.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts remain cautious on the U.S. drinkware category, which is still expected to face a highly competitive and promotional backdrop, posing downside risk to pricing, mix, and margin assumptions.
The fair value debate is influenced by execution risk around new product launches and the timing of an FY26 growth inflection. Any delays or missteps could cap valuation upside in the near term.
Some investors question the sustainability of recent digital and web traffic strength, viewing it as potentially volatile and sensitive to macro and promotional trends, which could limit confidence in Q3 upside.
While buybacks support EPS, skeptics note that relying too heavily on financial engineering rather than durable volume and margin expansion could constrain the premium investors are willing to pay for the shares.

What's in the News

YETI Holdings completed a major share repurchase program, buying back 10,149,803 shares (12.11 percent of shares outstanding) for a total of $372.82 million under the buyback announced on February 15, 2024 (company filing).
Between June 29, 2025 and November 6, 2025, the company repurchased 4,278,800 shares (5.21 percent of shares outstanding) for $149.85 million as the final tranche of this authorization (company filing).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: nudged slightly higher to approximately $41.00 per share from about $40.47, reflecting modestly improved fundamentals.
Discount Rate: increased marginally to roughly 7.27 percent from about 7.22 percent, implying a slightly higher required return.
Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at approximately 5.57 percent, indicating no meaningful shift in top line growth assumptions.
Net Profit Margin: essentially flat at about 9.42 percent, suggesting stable expectations for profitability.
Future P/E: risen modestly to around 16.21x from roughly 15.97x, pointing to a slightly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.

International expansion and direct-to-consumer growth are broadening revenue streams, lowering risk, and boosting profitability.
Product innovation and premium brand strategy are driving higher margins and building long-term customer loyalty.
Sustained category weakness, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and overreliance on key products threaten YETI's growth, margins, and pricing power amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

Catalysts

About YETI Holdings

Designs, retails, and distributes outdoor products under the YETI brand name.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company's accelerated international expansion, particularly robust growth and brand engagement in Europe and the rapid ramp-up in Japan and Asia, is unlocking a large revenue opportunity in underpenetrated markets; this is expected to drive sustained double-digit growth internationally and diversify global revenue streams.
YETI's broadening innovation pipeline-including the opening of the Asia-based innovation center and the introduction of 30+ new products in fiscal 2025-improves the company's ability to regularly launch premium, differentiated products across new and existing categories (bags, packs, Drinkware, soft and hard coolers), positioning the brand to capture long-term demand trends and support higher net revenue and gross margin expansion.
The company's strategic focus on premiumization and ongoing brand building-evident through viral product launches, high-profile partnerships (e.g., Fanatics for major sports leagues), and lifestyle-driven marketing-fortifies pricing power and customer loyalty, increasing resilience to promotional pressures and underpinning future margin and earnings growth.
Successful supply chain transformation and tariff mitigation efforts are expected to meaningfully reduce cost of goods sold volatility and improve gross margin stability in 2026 and beyond, directly contributing to higher net earnings and free cash flow.
Continued growth in direct-to-consumer channels, including yeti.com, Amazon, and owned retail stores, enables higher-margin sales, deeper consumer data, and enhanced pricing control, supporting higher EBITDA margins and more consistent earnings over the long term.

YETI Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

YETI Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming YETI Holdings's revenue will grow by 4.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.7% today to 9.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $202.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.69) by about September 2028, up from $177.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 16.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Leisure industry at 24.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 4.25% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.34%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

YETI Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The U.S. Drinkware market, a major revenue source for YETI, continues to experience heightened promotional activity, consumer caution, and category correction, contributing to flat or declining sales that could become a persistent headwind for top-line revenue and margins if secular category softness remains.
Intensifying competitive promotions and rapid shifts in consumer preferences may further erode brand pricing power and require increased discounting or marketing spend to stimulate demand, risking continued margin compression and lower net earnings.
Elevated dependence on key product lines like Drinkware and the viral Camino tote exposes YETI to concentration risk; failure to consistently innovate beyond these hero products or to transform initial demand surges into broad, sustainable category growth could result in stagnating or declining revenues over the long term.
Ongoing large-scale supply chain diversification efforts, though strategically important, are currently resulting in product launch delays, inventory constraints, and transitional disruptions, which could limit new product momentum and dampen both short
and medium-term revenue and earnings growth.
Persistent external risks-including macroeconomic uncertainty, potential long-term shifts in discretionary spending habits, and tariff/regulatory volatility (especially related to manufacturing regions)-could impede gross margin recovery and put pressure on YETI's long-term earnings power.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $36.533 for YETI Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $53.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $32.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.1 billion, earnings will come to $202.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
Given the current share price of $35.61, the analyst price target of $36.53 is 2.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Weigh Growth Prospects and Risks as YETI Holdings Receives Slight Valuation Boost