Last Update 10 Dec 25

WHR: 4.7% Dividend Yield Will Support Shares Despite Competitive Headwinds

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Whirlpool to $80 per share, citing emerging technical support levels and an increasingly compelling 4.7% dividend yield, even as the company continues to face headwinds from lower smart product adoption and demographic-driven share losses.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to the 4.7% dividend yield as an increasingly attractive support to total return, particularly after the recent reset. They argue it places a floor under valuation.
They view emerging technical support levels as evidence that downside risk may be more limited near the current price, reinforcing an $80 per share fair value framework.
Some see the ongoing investments in product and brand as a potential catalyst for a gradual improvement in execution and share stability over the medium term.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight structurally lower smart product adoption versus peers as a competitive overhang that may cap long term growth and justify only a hold stance.
They remain concerned that unfavorable demographics and market share losses will require elevated reinvestment, which could pressure margins and limit near term earnings growth.
The recent dividend reduction is cited as a signal of constrained cash flow flexibility, raising questions about Whirlpool's ability to balance shareholder returns with necessary strategic spending.

What's in the News

Federal investigators reported no evidence of widespread tariff evasion among appliance importers, countering Whirlpool's earlier claims that rivals were dodging U.S. duties on washers and other appliances (Wall Street Journal).
Whirlpool previously alerted the Trump administration that competitors might be undervaluing imported appliances to reduce tariff bills, citing sharp price drops in import data for products such as garbage disposals, gas ranges, and washing machines (Wall Street Journal).
Advent International is in exclusive, advanced talks to acquire a 31% controlling stake in Whirlpool of India. Whirlpool plans to retain about 20%, a deal structure that would trigger an open offer for an additional 26% under Indian takeover rules.
Whirlpool updated 2025 guidance, projecting roughly flat like for like net sales of about $15.8 billion, GAAP EPS of around $6.00, ongoing EPS of about $7.00, and ongoing EBIT of approximately $800 million.
The company announced a planned $300 million investment in U.S. laundry manufacturing facilities in Clyde and Marion, Ohio, targeting next generation washer and dryer production and 400 to 600 new direct jobs, with additional support from JobsOhio and state tax incentives.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: unchanged at approximately $86.78 per share, indicating no revision to the long term intrinsic value estimate.
Discount Rate: unchanged at 12.5%, implying the same required return and risk assessment as in the prior model.
Revenue Growth: effectively flat at about 1.76% annually, with only an immaterial downward adjustment in the updated assumption.
Net Profit Margin: effectively unchanged at roughly 4.75%, reflecting no meaningful shift in long term profitability expectations.
Future P/E: stable at about 9.2x, signaling no change in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Product innovation and premium offerings, along with smart appliance investments, position Whirlpool for higher margins and growth as consumer preferences shift and housing markets recover.
International expansion and domestic manufacturing strength enhance competitiveness, allowing margin improvement through restructuring and benefits from evolving global trade policies.
Stagnant growth in core markets, rising competition, adverse macro trends, and currency risks threaten Whirlpool's profitability and highlight ongoing uncertainty in its financial outlook.

Catalysts

About Whirlpool

Manufactures and markets home appliances and related products and services in the North America, Latin America, Asia, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Introduction of over 100 new products, including innovations in space-saving and multifunctional appliances (like the new KitchenAid suite and JennAir downdraft induction cooktops), addresses rising consumer demand for efficient, customizable, and premium offerings-supporting future revenue and margin growth.
Strong positioning in international markets, particularly Asia and Latin America, aligns Whirlpool to benefit from long-term global middle-class expansion and increased urbanization, paving the way for sustained sales growth as consumer demand recovers.
Recent and ongoing restructuring, cost takeout programs, and supply chain efficiencies are expected to deliver structural operating margin improvement, even as current headwinds fade.
Strengthened domestic U.S. manufacturing footprint positions Whirlpool to be a primary beneficiary of forthcoming tariff implementation, which will improve competitive positioning, support pricing power, and drive margin recovery as imported inventory clears and trade policies take full effect.
Leadership in the U.S. builder channel and direct-to-consumer sales, combined with investments in product digitization and smart appliance capabilities, positions Whirlpool to capture incremental sales and improve product mix as the U.S. housing market enters a multiyear recovery cycle-benefiting both revenues and operating margins.

Whirlpool Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Whirlpool's revenue will decrease by 0.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -0.9% today to 4.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $741.4 million (and earnings per share of $7.2) by about September 2028, up from $-146.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 10.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -35.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Consumer Durables industry at 11.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.37% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Whirlpool Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Whirlpool's legacy reliance on mature, saturated, and slow-growth markets in North America and Western Europe makes the company susceptible to prolonged periods of muted top-line growth, especially as revised guidance forecasts flat net sales and EBIT margins for 2025, directly threatening long-term revenue and earnings expansion.
Intensified global competition, especially from Asian manufacturers with structurally lower costs and aggressive preloading of imported product ahead of tariffs, has led to increased promotional pressure and market share losses for Whirlpool, compressing margins and elevating risks to profitability and future earnings.
Adverse macroeconomic trends-including persistent weak consumer sentiment, suppressed discretionary demand, high interest rates, and a sluggish U.S. housing market-have resulted in an unfavorable product mix (more lower-end products) and ongoing volume headwinds, structurally pressuring revenue growth and net margins.
Currency headwinds and economic deterioration in key international markets (such as the significant depreciation in Latin America and geopolitical tensions slowing demand in Asia) have already resulted in negative year-over-year sales and margin pressure, underscoring the risk that international expansion will not offset mature-market stagnation and could further erode overall company profitability.
Reduction of the annual dividend to pre-COVID levels reflects management's expectation of a prolonged period before earnings and margins recover to prior highs, suggesting a more constrained outlook for free cash flow, reduced immediate shareholder returns, and elevated uncertainty around the pace of financial improvement.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $96.5 for Whirlpool based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $145.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $63.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $15.8 billion, earnings will come to $741.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 10.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
Given the current share price of $93.81, the analyst price target of $96.5 is 2.8% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Dividend Yield And Investments Will Counter Competition And Demographic Pressures