Waste Connections

Analysts Update Price Target as Waste Connections Announces Dividend Increase and Share Repurchases

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

06 Aug 24

Updated

09 Dec 25

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

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1Y

-4.1%

7D

-0.3%

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1Y

-4.1%

7D

-0.3%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 10 10:05 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$204.9615.8% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 09 Dec 25

WCN: Margin Expansion Will Be Driven By M&A And Aggressive Buybacks

Analysts have nudged their blended price target for Waste Connections modestly higher to about $205 per share, citing the company’s consistent outperformance versus quarterly expectations, a robust M&A pipeline, and its positioning as a high quality compounder with solid waste margin expansion and free cash flow inflection potential despite near term sector headwinds. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Waste Connections reflects a generally constructive stance, with most firms either initiating at positive ratings or modestly raising price targets while acknowledging pockets of execution and macro risk.

Shared on 25 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.20%

WCN: Long-Term Margin Expansion Will Be Driven By Acquisitions And Buybacks

Analysts have slightly lowered their average price target for Waste Connections to $204.96 from $205.36. They cite near-term margin pressures and moderated growth expectations, despite continued confidence in the company's acquisition strategy and resilient core business.

Shared on 05 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.68%

WCN: Share Repurchases And Dividend Hike Will Drive Long-Term Margin Expansion

Waste Connections saw its average analyst price target edge up modestly by $0.42 to $207.00, as analysts cited continued outperformance versus expectations and optimism around long-term margin expansion and project execution, even though some forecasts for 2026 have been tempered. Analyst Commentary Analysts covering Waste Connections provided a range of perspectives following the latest financial results and guidance updates.

Shared on 22 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 0.87%

The analyst price target for Waste Connections has been modestly adjusted from $208.59 to $206.77 per share. This change reflects analysts' views on revenue growth, profit margins, and the company's differentiated strategy within a resilient waste management sector.

Shared on 08 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 1.12%

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Waste Connections, reducing the fair value from $210.95 to $208.59. They cited marginally softer growth and profitability expectations but affirmed confidence in the company’s long-term strategy and market position.

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Increased 1.65%

Shared on 30 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 0.74%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.36%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 16 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 0.41%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 1.61%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 1.62%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 0.32%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 5.08%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 7.8% to 7.0%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$204.96

15.8% undervalued

Future estimation in

% p.a.

0

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

6.09%

Commercial Services revenue growth rate

0.20%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

6.88%

Calculation

US$1.55b

Earnings '28

x

40.12x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$62.32b

Market Cap '28

US$62.32b

Market Cap '28

/

249.76m

No. shares '28

=

US$249.54

Share Price '28

US$249.54 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 6.89% p.a.

=

US$204.34

Fair Value '25