AI Automation And Owned Infrastructure Will Reshape Long Term Payroll And HR Workflows

Catalysts

About Paycom Software

Paycom Software provides cloud based human capital management and payroll solutions delivered through a single database platform.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Broad rollout of IWant across the entire client base, with millions of employee, manager and C suite queries already flowing through the system, positions Paycom to deepen product usage and support recurring revenue as more decisions and workflows move into its platform.
• Beti’s payroll automation, which management says can cut payroll processing labor by up to 90% and materially reduce error correction work, points to a long runway to lower service tickets and inbound calls, which can support operating efficiency and adjusted EBITDA margins.
• Roughly US$100 million of AI focused data center CapEx in Phoenix and Oklahoma City is already largely complete, giving Paycom capacity to support current and future AI workloads while keeping everything on its own hardware, which can help protect gross margin and sustain free cash flow conversion.
• Owning the full tech stack, from a single database to owned data centers, addresses employer concerns about exposing sensitive HR data to external LLMs, which can make Paycom’s offering more attractive for larger clients and support recurring revenue and client retention.
• Less than 5% penetration of the stated U.S. total addressable market, combined with management’s focus on new logo adds and more effective sales execution, gives Paycom room to add customers over time, which would primarily flow through recurring revenue and earnings.
• Automation across service, support and G&A, reflected in a 20% to 30% year over year decline in internal tickets and call volume, points to a structure that can support higher scale without a similar increase in headcount, which can support net margins and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Paycom Software compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bullish analysts are assuming Paycom Software's revenue will grow by 9.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 22.6% today to 24.6% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $638.0 million (and earnings per share of $11.67) by about January 2029, up from $453.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.0x on those 2029 earnings, up from 18.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Professional Services industry at 24.0x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.93% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.16%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The belief that AI driven products such as IWant and Beti will naturally translate into stronger growth could be challenged if usage patterns flatten out or new users revert to old workflows, which would limit cross sell, upsell and new logo traction and in turn cap recurring revenue growth and earnings.
• The roughly US$100 million of AI focused data center CapEx assumes a multiyear runway of heavy IWant usage and ongoing AI workloads. If industrywide AI adoption in HR and payroll proves slower or less broad than hoped, that spend could look oversized relative to demand and weigh on free cash flow conversion and net margins.
• The decision to own and operate advanced data centers rather than rely on public cloud providers could become a disadvantage if industry standards or regulations shift toward external LLMs and multi vendor setups. This may weaken Paycom’s competitive appeal and slow both revenue growth and margin expansion.
• Management has already reduced headcount by about 500 employees tied to a backlog of automation, and while this is meant to support efficiency, further automation over the long term could create internal disruption or service issues that hurt client satisfaction and retention. This would pressure recurring revenue and earnings.
• The belief that sub 5% penetration of the U.S. addressable market guarantees room for growth may not hold if competitors respond aggressively on AI, pricing or product breadth. This could limit Paycom’s ability to accelerate new logo adds and keep recurring and other revenue, net margins and earnings on the bullish trajectory implied by current expectations.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for Paycom Software is $250.0, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $208.71. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Paycom Software's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $250.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $165.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $2.6 billion, earnings will come to $638.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of $152.4, the analyst price target of $250.0 is 39.0% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.