Integrated Services Expansion And Share Buybacks Will Drive Stronger Long Term Outlook

Catalysts

About Civeo

Civeo provides workforce accommodation, hospitality and related services to resource and infrastructure projects in Australia and North America.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Expansion of the Australian integrated services platform toward the AUD 500 million revenue target by 2027, supported by a growing sales funnel and geographic diversification across Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland, is expected to drive sustained top line growth and operating leverage in margins.
• A full year contribution from the recently acquired Bowen Basin villages, combined with strong contract coverage and high utilization of key sites, is expected to offset modest occupancy softness and support rising earnings and cash generation despite commodity price volatility.
• Stabilizing Canadian lodge occupancy, layered on top of already executed structural cost reductions and lodge closures, positions the segment for meaningful incremental margin expansion as even modest volume recovery flows through to EBITDA and net income.
• Increasing visibility on long duration LNG, pipeline, transmission and U.S. infrastructure projects, together with heightened bidding activity for mobile camps across North America, creates a multi year runway for higher asset utilization, revenue growth and improved return on invested capital from a largely existing fleet.
• Disciplined capital allocation, with a commitment to direct at least all current free cash flow to substantial share repurchases while maintaining leverage around 2 times, is expected to amplify per share earnings and cash flow growth as operating performance improves.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Civeo's revenue will grow by 4.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -4.6% today to 0.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.9 million (and earnings per share of $0.41) by about December 2028, up from $-28.7 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $7.0 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.2 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 85.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -8.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Commercial Services industry at 22.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.28%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Prolonged weakness or further declines in met coal and oil prices could pressure customer headcount and project activity in Australia and the Canadian oil sands, which would reduce lodge and village occupancy and constrain revenue growth.
• If Canadian oil sands operators continue to prioritize cost reductions and localized staffing as a new structural norm rather than a temporary cycle, demand for fly in, fly out accommodation and mobile camps may remain subdued, limiting long term revenue recovery and operating leverage in that segment.
• Execution risk around deploying the 2,500 to 3,500 mobile camp rooms into LNG, pipeline, transmission and U.S. infrastructure projects, including delays to final investment decisions or losing bids to competitors, could push out the expected utilization uplift, keeping earnings and cash flow below expectations.
• Persistent labor shortages in Australia, particularly for chefs and other hospitality roles, could increase wage and recruitment costs or constrain the company’s ability to take on new integrated services contracts, pressuring net margins even if top line revenue continues to grow.
• The strategy of directing at least all annual free cash flow to aggressive share repurchases while maintaining leverage around 2 times may limit financial flexibility if end markets weaken or large growth projects require unexpected capital expenditure, increasing downside risk to earnings and balance sheet strength.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $28.0 for Civeo based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $709.3 million, earnings will come to $3.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 85.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of $21.9, the analyst price target of $28.0 is 21.8% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.