Investments In AI And Talent Development Will Increase Future Client Acquisition And Efficiency

Key Takeaways

• Strategic partnerships and acquisitions are strengthening data management and expanding the client base, especially in banking, driving potential revenue growth.
  
• Investments in AI and talent development are boosting client acquisition, operational efficiency, and potentially improving margins through innovative solutions.
  
• Significant nonrecurring revenue boosts current figures, but future growth may be pressured by higher investments, depreciation, and competitive AI challenges, affecting margins and stability.

Catalysts

Operates as a data analytics, and digital operations and solutions company in the United States and internationally.

• EXL's strategy of leveraging domain expertise, data management, and AI services is resulting in significant growth in its Digital Operations and Solutions segments, which may enhance future revenue.
  
• The company is expanding its pipeline of large deals over $25 million in total contract value, which is expected to contribute to future earnings growth.
  
• EXL's acquisitions, such as ITI Data, and partnerships, like those with Databricks, are enhancing their data management capabilities and expanding their client footprint, particularly in banking, which could drive future revenue growth.
  
• EXL is investing heavily in developing proprietary AI models and solutions, such as their insurance-specific LLM, which may increase client acquisition and retention, impacting revenue and potentially improving net margins due to efficiencies brought by AI-driven claims processing.
  
• EXL is committed to aggressive talent acquisition and employee development, including nearly 1 million hours of training and certifications across major data and AI platforms, which could improve operational efficiencies, support innovation, and enhance earnings over time.

ExlService Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming ExlService Holdings's revenue will grow by 13.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.6% today to 11.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $295.2 million (and earnings per share of $1.85) by about December 2027, up from $187.9 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.3x on those 2027 earnings, down from 39.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Professional Services industry at 25.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.29% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.36%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

ExlService Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• There is mention of a significant amount of nonrecurring revenue that contributed to this quarter's figures which may not continue in the following quarter, potentially impacting future revenue growth.
  
• The company is planning to significantly step up investments in OpEx and CapEx to stay ahead in capability, which may pressure margins if the anticipated growth does not materialize as expected.
  
• Higher depreciation on newly opened operating centers has already slightly impacted operating margins, and continued expansion could further compress net margins.
  
• Increasing competitive pressures in building proprietary AI solutions and services, as mentioned with the fast-evolving AI landscape, could result in higher R&D costs and a possible reduction in pricing power, impacting gross margins.
  
• The volatility in margins quarter-to-quarter due to various investments and market dynamics might introduce unpredictability and impact earnings stability in the near term.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $45.25 for ExlService Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $50.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $34.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $2.6 billion, earnings will come to $295.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
• Given the current share price of $45.59, the analyst's price target of $45.25 is 0.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.