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ADP Stock: Solid Fundamentals, But AI Investments Test Its Margin Resilience

yiannisz

Not Invested

Community Contributor

Published

29 Oct 25

Updated

23 Dec 25

Views

2.1k

23 Dec

US$233.74

yiannisz's Fair Value

US$387.77

39.7% undervalued

-28.3%

3.7%

-28.3%

3.7%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 24 2:25 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$387.7739.7% undervalued

yiannisz's Fair Value

Shared on 23 Dec 25

ADP Stock: Why Boring Payroll Is One of the Most Durable Businesses in Tech

ADP turns "boring" payroll into a sticky, mission-critical service that companies rarely switch away from, especially as tax and labor rules get more complex. The update explains how ADP’s scale and data can help it hold onto customers and add higher-value insights, even while cheaper rivals compete on price.

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Valuator

Company Info

Notes

yiannisz'sFair Value

US$387.77

39.7% undervalued

Future estimation in

Revenue

Profit Margin

Future PE

Growth p.a.

Decrease

Increase

Forecast revenue growth rate

5.44%

Historical revenue growth rate

7.56%

Professional Services revenue growth rate

0.29%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

7.52%

Calculation

US$7.75b

Earnings '30

27.77x

PE Ratio '30

US$215.06b

Market Cap '30

US$215.06b

Market Cap '30

393.30m

No. shares '30

US$546.80

Share Price '30

US$546.80 Share Price '30

Discounted to 2025 @ 7.12% p.a.

US$387.72

Fair Value '25