Cost Optimization And Product Launches Will Strengthen Future Market Position

Key Takeaways

• Strategic growth initiatives and innovative product launches may drive future revenue growth and strengthen market position.
  
• Cost optimization plans and improved cash management could enhance net margins and bolster long-term earnings.
  
• Kennametal faces declining sales and profitability due to challenging market conditions, economic headwinds, and inflation pressures in key regions.

Catalysts

Engages in development and application of tungsten carbides, ceramics, and super-hard materials and solutions for use in metal cutting and extreme wear applications to enable customers work against corrosion and high temperatures conditions worldwide.

• Kennametal is focused on above-market growth initiatives through innovative product launches and participating in key industry events, which may positively impact future revenue growth.
  
• The company is executing a $100 million cost improvement plan, which includes investments in third-party expertise and restructuring savings, expected to improve future net margins.
  
• Free operating cash flow has significantly improved compared to the previous year, indicating better cash management that could bolster future earnings.
  
• The continued share repurchase program suggests confidence in the company's future prospects and could enhance earnings per share.
  
• Kennametal's strategy includes a focus on optimizing inventory levels and reducing working capital, which is expected to contribute to improved net margins in the future.

Kennametal Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Kennametal's revenue will grow by 1.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 5.0% today to 7.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $150.4 million (and earnings per share of $1.82) by about January 2028, up from $101.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.5x on those 2028 earnings, which is the same as it is today today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Machinery industry at 24.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.11% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.53%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Kennametal Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Market conditions in EMEA worsened, impacting several end markets, including General Engineering and Transportation, which could lead to lower revenue growth in these regions.
  
• Industrial production in the U.S. remains soft, signaling potential challenges in demand for Kennametal's products and impacting revenue growth.
  
• Sales in General Engineering and Transportation are declining, particularly in the Americas and EMEA, which may negatively affect overall revenue and earnings.
  
• Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased from the prior year, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability amidst lower sales and production volumes, impacting net margins.
  
• The company faces headwinds from higher wages, general inflation, and temporary plant shutdowns, which may continue to compress margins and reduce earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $27.25 for Kennametal based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $32.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $21.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.1 billion, earnings will come to $150.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
• Given the current share price of $24.19, the analyst's price target of $27.25 is 11.2% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.