Rising US Defense Budgets Will Boost Unmanned Maritime Systems Deployment

Key Takeaways

• Favorable defense policy trends, new tech segment wins, and backlog growth drive strong long-term revenue potential, margin expansion, and cash flow stability.
  
• Operational improvements, tech partnerships, and industrial base revitalization enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and support consistent earnings growth.
  
• Dependence on large, delayed contracts, ongoing supply chain and labor challenges, and political budget uncertainty all threaten long-term growth, margins, and revenue stability.

Catalysts

Designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs military ships in the United States.

• Sustained increases in U.S. defense budgets and policy tailwinds, as evidenced by multi-year funding allocations in the FY26 budget (including support for Columbia-class, Virginia-class, and amphibious ship programs) and the reconciliation bill's directed industrial base investments, ensure robust multi-year order flow and underpin long-term revenue growth and backlog visibility.
  
• The accelerated shift towards autonomous and unmanned maritime systems-highlighted by HII's Mission Technologies segment winning new U.S. Navy orders for uncrewed undersea vehicles and opportunities for 200+ further vehicles-positions HII to benefit disproportionately from expansion in high-growth, technologically advanced defense segments, supporting revenue diversification and potential margin expansion.
  
• Strategic partnerships with leading tech firms (such as the C3 AI collaboration for digital transformation) and significant investments in advanced manufacturing are driving operational efficiency and throughput gains, which in turn are expected to lower costs and gradually lift shipbuilding net margins and return on capital.
  
• The revitalization and expansion of the U.S. maritime industrial base, supported by increased outsourcing, supply chain stabilization efforts, and targeted workforce investments (notably effective wage increases and hiring), are enabling HII to execute a 20% throughput improvement plan, directly translating into enhanced cash flow and improved earnings consistency.
  
• A steadily growing backlog ($56.9 billion) built upon multi-year, multi-program contracts-alongside visible recurring maintenance, training, and modernization opportunities-continues to bolster long-term cash flow generation and earnings stability, offering downside protection if the market currently undervalues forward earnings and cash flow durability.

Huntington Ingalls Industries Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Huntington Ingalls Industries's revenue will grow by 5.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.5% today to 5.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $783.7 million (and earnings per share of $19.93) by about August 2028, up from $525.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $869.1 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $693.6 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.0x on those 2028 earnings, down from 20.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Aerospace & Defense industry at 32.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.06% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.24%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Huntington Ingalls Industries Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Dependence on major contract awards (e.g., Virginia-class Block VI and Columbia Build II submarines) introduces risk: if timing for these large programs slips further or awards are delayed into future years, it would negatively impact revenue visibility, near-term earnings growth, and could create quarterly revenue/EPS volatility.
  
• Persistent supply chain fragility, particularly for critical equipment on major ships like CVN 80, continues to cause schedule delays-if not fully resolved, this could impede throughput improvements, escalate costs, and erode segment operating margins over the long term.
  
• Labor market pressures remain a structural challenge: although recent wage increases and improved hiring/retention trends are encouraging, HII's long-term growth is still exposed to industry-wide skilled labor shortages, potentially driving sustained wage inflation and constraining margin expansion.
  
• Heavy fixed costs and high capital intensity at HII's shipyards risk underutilization if defense priorities eventually shift away from large manned vessels (as the industry evolves toward unmanned/autonomous platforms or cyber capabilities), limiting asset turnover and weighing on long-term returns on invested capital.
  
• Political and fiscal uncertainty-particularly rising government debt and pressure on U.S. federal budgets-creates the risk of reduced shipbuilding funding or greater program scrutiny in future years, which could constrain backlog growth, depress revenues, and pressure free cash flow if support for defense spending wanes.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $284.9 for Huntington Ingalls Industries based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $324.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $221.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $13.6 billion, earnings will come to $783.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
• Given the current share price of $269.43, the analyst price target of $284.9 is 5.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.