Blue Bird And Winnebago Partnerships Will Optimize Operational Efficiency

Key Takeaways

• Strategic partnerships and expansion in powertrain and utility applications could drive revenue growth and enhance margins.
  
• Operational pivots and supplier reshoring could improve working capital and counter tariff impacts, supporting net margin improvement.
  
• Xos faces revenue and cost challenges due to seasonal shifts, supply chain disruptions, policy changes, and high reliance on state incentives.

Catalysts

Designs, manufactures, and sells battery-electric commercial vehicles.

• Xos anticipates continued top-line growth, margin expansion, and improved product diversity, which could positively impact future revenue and net margins.
  
• The company is focusing on reducing inventory turnover and accelerating cash collection through operational pivots like strip chassis deliveries, which could improve working capital management and net margins.
  
• Strategic partnerships with companies like Blue Bird and Winnebago in the powertrain business are expected to drive growth, potentially enhancing both revenue and gross margins.
  
• Expansion of the Hub product leads to increasing demand in fleet and utility applications, which could support future revenue growth and positive gross margins.
  
• Xos is optimizing costs through supplier partnerships and reshoring components to mitigate tariff impacts, which could help maintain or improve net margins.

Xos Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Xos's revenue will grow by 10.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Xos will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Xos's profit margin will increase from -89.6% to the average US Machinery industry of 9.1% in 3 years.
• If Xos's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $6.9 million (and earnings per share of $0.86) by about May 2028, up from $-50.2 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -0.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Machinery industry at 21.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.92% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.17%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Xos Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Xos faced a 27.3% decline in top line revenue in Q4, primarily due to seasonal challenges and delayed vehicle acceptance, indicating risks to consistent revenue streams in the future.
  
• The supply chain disruptions and proposed new tariffs on imported EV components could significantly increase costs by $5,000 to $20,000 per vehicle, impacting net margins and overall profitability.
  
• Changes in federal policies could lead to some customers losing access to tax credits and federal incentives, affecting demand and potential revenue growth in key markets.
  
• While Xos has been managing costs and improving efficiency, the operating expenses were still high, and the company's operating loss was significant, indicating challenges in achieving positive operating earnings.
  
• The financial reliance on state-level incentives and grants represents a risk, as any changes or reductions in these programs could impact the company's liquidity and cash flow needs.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $6.333 for Xos based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $8.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $76.0 million, earnings will come to $6.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.2%.
• Given the current share price of $3.88, the analyst price target of $6.33 is 38.7% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.