IIJA Funding And Sunbelt Demand Will Unlock Enduring Potential

Key Takeaways

• Increasing infrastructure funding and focus on Sunbelt regions position the company for outsized growth, with acquisitions driving expanded market share and contract awards.
  
• Vertical integration and ongoing strategic acquisitions enhance operational efficiency, earnings resilience, and support sustained long-term revenue and margin growth.
  
• Heavy dependence on public funding, regional concentration, labor shortages, rising costs, and sustainability demands threaten long-term revenue stability, profitability, and competitive positioning.

Catalysts

A civil infrastructure company, constructs and maintains roadways in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.

• Construction Partners is set to benefit from sustained increases in federal, state, and local infrastructure funding-supported by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and robust state programs-leading to multi-year growth in backlog and long-term visibility on revenue.
  
• The company's concentration in high-growth Sunbelt regions, particularly with recent transformative acquisitions like Lone Star in Texas and Durwood Greene in Houston, aligns with continued migration and urbanization trends that will drive outsized growth in contract awards, organic revenue, and market share.
  
• Ongoing vertical integration-through investment in owned asphalt plants and material sourcing-combined with increasing scale, is already enhancing operational efficiencies and margin expansion, as shown by record adjusted EBITDA margins despite weather disruptions; this should drive higher net margins and improved earnings resilience going forward.
  
• Active pursuit of strategic acquisitions in growing, demographically advantaged markets is likely to continue compounding top-line growth and expanding geographic reach, while post-acquisition synergies and bolt-on opportunities further increase revenue and margin potential in both public and private segments.
  
• Strong backlog coverage (80–85% of next 12 months' revenue) and recurring state/city DOT contracts, underpinned by secular demand for maintenance and expansion of aging U.S. road infrastructure, provide visibility and stability for future cash flows and support sustainable long-term earnings growth.

Construction Partners Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Construction Partners's revenue will grow by 18.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.0% today to 7.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $286.4 million (and earnings per share of $4.99) by about August 2028, up from $74.5 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 30.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 83.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Construction industry at 33.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.38% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.81%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Construction Partners Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Construction Partners' heavy reliance on public infrastructure funding exposes it to the risk of government budget changes, political shifts, or fiscal tightening, which could result in significant revenue volatility and contraction in future earnings if public spending slows.
  
• The company's geographic concentration in the Southeast and Sunbelt states increases sensitivity to region-specific economic downturns, policy changes, and weather events (such as the weather-related delays highlighted this quarter), which could negatively impact both revenues and margins over the long term.
  
• Long-term labor force pressures, including an aging workforce and industry-wide talent shortages, could create higher recruitment, retention, and compensation costs, potentially compressing net margins and limiting the company's ability to execute on its backlog.
  
• Sustained increases in raw material (bitumen, aggregates) and energy costs, or heightened competition that limits pricing power-combined with the company's relatively low differentiation in a fragmented market-may put downward pressure on gross margins and net earnings.
  
• Rising expectations and regulatory demands for sustainable construction and greener paving solutions could necessitate higher capital expenditures and operational changes; failure to keep pace may result in lost contracts or market share, diminishing future revenue growth and profitability.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $120.167 for Construction Partners based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.1 billion, earnings will come to $286.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 30.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
• Given the current share price of $111.46, the analyst price target of $120.17 is 7.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.