Upcoming Emissions Standards And Next-Gen Powertrains Will Spur Truck Demand

Key Takeaways

• Pre-2027 regulatory shifts and infrastructure investment are accelerating truck demand, parts growth, and high-margin recurring revenues, strengthening earnings stability.
  
• Strategic investment in clean technology, digital services, and fleet solutions is enhancing margins, profitability, and positioning for long-term industry leadership.
  
• Prolonged economic, regulatory, and technological uncertainties threaten PACCAR's revenue growth, margins, and market share due to higher costs, weak demand, and cautious innovation investment.

Catalysts

Designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and internationally.

• Demand for new trucks is likely to rise meaningfully as customers pre-buy ahead of the 2027 NOx and greenhouse gas emissions standards, which will increase truck costs and incentivize earlier fleet upgrades-a catalyst for revenue and earnings acceleration.
  
• Increasing infrastructure spending in North America and globally is supporting healthy vocational and freight markets, driving consistent truck and parts orders, which bolsters unit volumes and supports revenue growth.
  
• Expansion of the PACCAR Parts business, demonstrated by record revenues even in a flat market and supported by investments in distribution capacity, is driving recurring, higher-margin revenue streams, which should enhance overall net margin and earnings stability.
  
• Ongoing investments in next-gen clean diesel, alternative powertrains, and connected vehicle services position PACCAR to capture future growth as fleets transition towards more efficient and zero-emission vehicles, supporting long-term top line and margin expansion.
  
• Rising adoption of digital fleet management and over-the-air telematics, combined with PACCAR's strengthening financial services and used truck business, is expected to increase customer lifetime value and support higher margin, recurring revenue, positively impacting future profitability.

PACCAR Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming PACCAR's revenue will grow by 2.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.9% today to 12.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $4.1 billion (and earnings per share of $7.8) by about July 2028, up from $3.1 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $5.0 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $2.8 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 16.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Machinery industry at 22.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.17% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.33%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

PACCAR Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Ongoing and uncertain tariff structures, especially related to Section 232 and IEEPA, could raise input costs and compress gross margins, particularly if tariff surcharges are not fully passed through to customers, thereby impacting net margins and earnings.
  
• Elevated interest rates and economic headwinds in key regions like South America (notably Brazil) are already reducing truck demand, signaling potential for lower revenue growth and regional market contraction if macro weakness persists.
  
• Weakness in truck orders for several months and continued overcapacity in the truckload sector create sustained uncertainty around second-half deliveries; if market normalization is delayed or freight demand weakens further, revenue and earnings could fall short of optimistic projections.
  
• The company's cautious stance on the pace of electric and autonomous vehicle adoption (with limited immediate impact from EVs and autonomy, and conservative investment posture) could expose PACCAR to competitive risk from faster-moving OEMs, threatening long-term revenue and market share growth in emerging truck technologies.
  
• Persistent trade, regulatory, and supply chain uncertainties-including unresolved emissions standards for 2027 and global geopolitical tensions-may increase compliance costs, create pre-buy cycles that distort normal demand, and hinder production planning, thereby affecting both future revenue stability and net margins.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $102.575 for PACCAR based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $131.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $81.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $33.7 billion, earnings will come to $4.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of $98.58, the analyst price target of $102.57 is 3.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.